Will Trump EPA target CA electric-car, emissions rules? Not yet, maybe; here's why

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Golden Gate Bridge, connecting San Francisco and Marin County, California

Golden Gate Bridge, connecting San Francisco and Marin County, California

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California began regulating vehicle emissions within its boundaries before the Environmental Protection Agency was even a gleam in President Richard Nixon's eye.

Since that agency was founded in 1971 with an executive order by Nixon, the state has retained the right to set its own—more stringent—emission rules.

Now, under President Donald Trump and climate-science denier Scott Pruitt, who runs the EPA, there's widespread fear that the agency will attack the "waiver" it granted to California that permits its zero-emission vehicle sales requirements.

DON'T MISS: Ruling that EPA must regulate carbon emissions: now 10 years old

That could happen, though it would be a major court battle that might last the entire remainder of Trump's first four-year presidential term.

But, according to Don Anair, who's the research and deputy director of the Clean Vehicles Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, it may not happen yet.

He explained why in an interview with Green Car Reports.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump

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But first, some history. California's separate rules first became truly costly for automakers in the mid-1990s, with the state's first round of zero-emission vehicle requirements.

They led most notably to the famous GM EV1 electric car, but the cost of compliance and installation of infrastructure—plus some considerable political maneuvering we're not going to get into—meant that the first ZEV mandate was dialed back a few years later.

When the state decided to regulate not only "criteria emission" (carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and hydrocarbons) but also the climate-change gas carbon dioxide, the challenge for automakers became even tougher.

READ THIS: EPA website axes climate-change pages, because science contradicts Pruitt policy goals

Because a car's CO2 emissions are directly proportional to the fuel it burns, California was in essence setting its own fuel-economy rules, separate from the U.S. rules issued by the NHTSA.

The EPA under President George W. Bush fought the idea that it should regulate CO2 on a national basis, and the conflict went all the way to the Supreme Court.

Once the Court ruled that not only could the EPA regulate CO2 emissions, it had to, then the EPA and NHTSA had to coordinate their standards—and, even more challenging, give the powerful California Air Resources Board a seat at the negotiating table.

President Obama inspects the 2011 Chevrolet Volt

President Obama inspects the 2011 Chevrolet Volt

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That all happened in a rush, because with the Bush EPA having slow-walked issuing any regulations for 2012 and later model-year vehicles, President Barack Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 less than two years before 2012 model-year cars could go on sale in January 2011.

Automakers must commit hundreds of millions of dollars to investments in technology and tooling, years ahead of time, based on the regulations they will have to meet.

The lack of understanding of what fuel-economy and emission standards would be required made them deeply unsettled, and Obama convened panels to set the 2012 through 2017 standards as a first order of business.

CHECK OUT: Trump's EPA deletes 'science' from Science Office mission statement

In the end, the stiffer California standards more or less became the national standards, both for the 2012-2017 rules adopted in 2010 and a second set covering 2018 through 2025 vehicles that were signed into law in 2012.

That second set included a "midterm review," in which the EPA would look at the cost and success of the earlier standards and assess whether the final set (for 2022 through 2025) should be kept or altered.

Last summer, a report issued by the EPA concluded that automakers had successfully met the 2012-2017 standards, at lower cost than projected.

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