How many Model 3s will Tesla deliver by Dec 31? Twitter poll results, again

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2017 Tesla Model 3, 2017 Los Angeles Auto Show

2017 Tesla Model 3, 2017 Los Angeles Auto Show

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What a difference a few months makes.

In June, one month before the delivery of the first 30 Tesla Model 3, we polled our Twitter followers on how many of the lower-priced electric cars Tesla would deliver by the end of this year.

The view then was pretty rosy, with more than half the respondents saying the company would have sold more than 10,000 Model 3s.

DON'T MISS: How many Tesla Model 3s will be delivered by Dec 31? Poll results (Jun 2017)

But Tesla faced monumental challenges in getting Model 3 up and running, likely exacerbated by the risky choice not to build the usual dozens of pre-production test vehicles on assembly-line tooling before it was finalized.

The result has been, in the phrase used often by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, "production hell" for the Model 3.

Six months after we closed that first poll, we decided to repeat it, to see how views of Tesla's likely Model 3 deliveries had changed.

And changed they had indeed.

In June, 53 percent of respondents said Tesla would deliver more than 10,000 Model 3s, but that percentage is now down to a meager 4 percent.

READ THIS: Configuring a Tesla Model 3: buyer walks through the process with us

The most popular choice in the latest poll, in fact, is just "0 to 2,500" Model 3s by December 31. That was selected by 44 percent of respondents, against only 20 percent in June.

Another 40 percent last week chose "2,501 to 5,000" as the likely Model 3 delivery total, while just 14 percent chose that option in the first poll in June.

2017 Tesla Model 3, 2017 Los Angeles Auto Show

2017 Tesla Model 3, 2017 Los Angeles Auto Show

Enlarge Photo

The final option, "5,001 to 10,000" Model 3 deliveries, lured only 12 percent of respondents this time, essentially the same as June's 13 percent.

In other words, the balance has shifted over six months from the highest possible choice to the lowest possible—which essentially reflects reality.

CHECK OUT: Tesla Semi, new Roadster distract from Model 3 production problems

Tesla hasn't officially said how many Model 3s it delivered in either October or November, but rumors and some data place that number in the low hundreds at best.

We'll find out in early January what the real total for October, November, and December was, when Tesla releases global fourth-quarter delivery numbers.

As always, please note that our Twitter polls are far from scientifically valid, due to small sample size and self-selection by those who choose to participate.

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