More than five months ago, before the 2017 Tesla Model 3 officially launched, we published the results of a poll asking how many of the lower-priced electric cars would be delivered by the end of this year.
Survey respondents on Twitter were optimistic, with more than half suggesting Tesla would deliver more than 10,000 by December 31.
Suffice it to say, that hasn't happened.
DON'T MISS: How many Tesla Model 3s will be delivered by Dec 31? Poll results (Jun 2017)
Tesla hasn't provided an update over the last several weeks, but rough guesses at the number of Model 3s now in owner hands are on the order of 1,000 or so.
Even that could be optimistic, considering that by the end of September, a mere 260 Model 3s had been delivered—apparently hand-built at the assembly plant in Fremont, California.
Eager serial-number spotters report Model 3 VINs all over the first 1,000 or so numbers, but that's by no means an indication that all the cars in between have made it to their buyers.
2017 Tesla Model 3 in Tesla assembly plant parking lot, Fremont, CA, November 2017
The topic of Model 3 production was front and center during the early November Q3 results call for financial analysts.
They peppered Tesla CEO Elon Musk with questions about the Model 3, its rate, its prospects, and its production problems.
The answer seemed to remain what it had been for several weeks: the Model 3 remains in "production hell" and the company is struggling to get its production line up and running.
WATCH THIS: Tesla Model 3 video review compares lower-priced electric car to Model S
Without recapping all the suggestions, rumors, and theories—which could take an article or three all by themselves—we decided to repeat our late-June poll.
The question is exactly the same: How many Model 3 electric cars do you think Tesla will have delivered by December 31 this year?
The options this time are exactly the same as they were then, with choices ranging from up to 2,500 on the pessimistic end of the scale and "more than 10,000" on the optimistic front.
How many Model 3s will Tesla deliver by Dec 31?
— Green Car Reports (@GreenCarReports) November 27, 2017
We'll be curious to see how the distribution of responses differs in light of five difficult months for the 14-year-old Silicon Valley carmaker.
The recent unveiling of the Tesla Semi tractor and the surprise debut of the next-generation Tesla Roadster were impressive, but remain largely a sideshow to the crucial importance of getting the Model 3 right.
CHECK OUT: Tesla Semi, new Roadster distract from Model 3 production problems
Musk had predicted in July that the company would be building 5,000 electric cars per week by December 31, but its most recent prediction was considerably more sober: it would deliver more than 100,000 cars in all of 2017.
As always, please note that our Twitter polls are far from scientifically valid, due to small sample size and self-selection by those who choose to participate.
_______________________________________
