Most-accurate climate-change models suggest worst effects on global weather

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Flooded car in parking lot. Photo via Flickr user waitscm/CC2.0

Flooded car in parking lot. Photo via Flickr user waitscm/CC2.0

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The denial of accepted climate science by the Trump Administration has now put the U.S. at odds with essentially every other nation in the world.

Meanwhile, the news on the effects of higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is, if anything, getting worse.

A recent analysis of studies and models of those effects seems to indicate that climate models that are the most accurate in predicting recent events suggest the most dire effects of future changes.

DON'T MISS: Global carbon emissions to rise after staying flat for three years: report

The study by the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, was published early in December in the journal Science.

As described by The Washington Post, it surveyed simulations, or models, of the effects of climate change "based on the physical equations that govern the behavior of the atmosphere and oceans" calculated by scientists.

The models that most accurately captured the current climate conditions turned out to predict a higher degree of global warming than did the models that were less accurate for the current conditions.

Global carbon dioxide emissions, 1850-2030 [CO2 Information Analysis Center, World Energy Outlook]

Global carbon dioxide emissions, 1850-2030 [CO2 Information Analysis Center, World Energy Outlook]

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Researchers Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira added a twist to previous aggregations of climate predictions, which generally produce a range of estimates.

The pair instead looked at the different simulations and compared their modeling of climatic events to recent climate events, to see which appeared to be most accurate in their predictive capabilities.

Outside scientists consulted by the Post deemed the research "well-executed and intriguing," though not yet entirely definitive.

CHECK OUT: Action on climate change 'harmful, unnecessary': Trump White House

Meanwhile, we learned on Monday that the Administration has removed climate change from its list of national security threats.

That change came as President Donald Trump released his new national security strategy, which includes a section on the need for the U.S. to achieve "energy dominance" globally.

President Barack Obama had added climate change to the threat list in 2015, in part because the Pentagon had quietly increased its planning around threats from potential changes in global agricultural patterns and yields and increased refugee migration due to coastal flooding and other natural disasters.

The Pentagon, Jan 2008 [photo: David B. Gleason, Chicago, IL - CC BY-SA 2.0]

The Pentagon, Jan 2008 [photo: David B. Gleason, Chicago, IL - CC BY-SA 2.0]

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The president of the United States has denied the existence of climate change, referring to it using a bovine excremental epithet and claiming the global scientific consensus is nothing more than a hoax created by the Chinese to hurt U.S. interests.

Unfortunately for him, his own Defense Secretary does not share those views.

In testimony submitted in March to the U.S. Senate, James Mattis stated climate change is real, and that it represents a major and ongoing threat to American interests abroad and the Pentagon’s assets everywhere

Green Car Reports respectfully reminds its readers that the scientific validity of climate change is not a topic for debate in our comments. We ask that any comments by climate-change denialists be flagged for moderation. We also ask that political discussions be restricted to the topic of the article they follow. Thank you in advance for helping us keep our comments on topic, civil, respectful, family-friendly, and fact-based.

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