Global sales of internal-combustion cars have already peaked, while electric cars are on their way to attaining two thirds of the global car market by 2040, according to a new Bloomberg report.
EV adoption is gaining momentum thanks to falling battery costs, expanded charging infrastructure, and government clampdowns on the dirtiest cars, according to the report, which projected that EV sales will rise from 3 million in 2020 to 66 million in 2040.
Europe and China will lead this transition, and adoption rates of other types of vehicles, such as electric buses, will increase as well, the report said. Hybrids are also expected to take some sales from internal-combustion vehicles, while hydrogen fuel-cell cars will remain a very small part of the market, according to the report.
Passenger vehicle sales by powertrain (from Bloomberg NEF report)
A similar trend was predicted in 2019, when industry analysts declared that internal-combustion car sales had peaked the previous year. Another 2019 report predicted that EV sales would surpass internal-combustion cars in 2037, also following roughly the same timeline as the Bloomberg report.
Battery cost remains the most significant factor for EV adoption. The pack price target has shifted from $100/kwh to $60/kwh on a pack basis, to make EVs cheaper than internal-combustion, and experts see that as achievable this decade.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries—better know as OPEC—back in 2015 claimed that even in 2040, hybrids and EVs combined would make up just 14% of global sales. Even discounting OPEC's vested interest in a fossil-fueled future, it's worth noting that the number of EV models available globally has expanded significantly since 2015, as has charging infrastructure, while battery prices have dropped.