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When Will Electric Cars Compete in the Mainstream Market?


2013 Tesla Model S on Chilcotin Highway, Canada [photo: owner Vincent Argiro]

2013 Tesla Model S on Chilcotin Highway, Canada [photo: owner Vincent Argiro]

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Electric-car advocates often take it as an article of faith that electric propulsion will one day compete directly with vehicles powered by fossil fuels.

Many would go further, arguing that electric cars are already competitive with those using an internal-combustion engine, or ICE, in the consumer marketplace.

But for battery-electric cars to compete directly, they will need to be as good as--and probably better than--their ICE counterparts on most of the key metrics by which consumers judge cars.

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This point is laid out clearly in Clayton Christensen's 1997 book, The Innovator's Dilemma. Christensen points to top speed, range, and acceleration as key metrics to track the progress and project the future of electric cars.  

2015 Nissan Leaf

2015 Nissan Leaf

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Perhaps he should have included price and charging time, but his metrics are still useful almost 20 years later to show the progress of electric vehicles.

40 years, 50 electric cars

To supplement Christensen's data, I collected performance information on 50 different electric cars from various online sources, with the EPA's FuelEconomy.gov being particularly helpful.

The electric vehicles spanned the range from 1975 to 2015 (40 years now!).

The data falls into roughly into three time periods: (1) just after the 1973 OPEC oil embargo; (2) late-1990s electric cars responding to the original zero-emission vehicle mandate by the powerful California Air Resources Board; and (3) the modern electric-car period that started in December 2010 with the launch of the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt.

2002 Toyota RAV4 EV on eBay. Image: Plug In America

2002 Toyota RAV4 EV on eBay. Image: Plug In America

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While those two vehicles kicked off the modern electric-vehicle era, more than a dozen additional plug-in cars of various types have since entered the market--many in response to CARB's revised and increasingly stringent ZEV mandate that took effect for the 2012 model year.

Top speed

Given the limitations on highway driving in the U.S., Christensen surmised that the maximum speed needed for marketplace acceptance is relatively fixed: somewhere around 80 mph. In the mid 1970s, electric-car builders could only dream about such speeds, having to settle for building city cars with a maximum speed of 30 or 40 mph. 

ALSO SEE: Tesla's Next Electric Car Line: Roundup Of What We Know Now

By the late 1990s, plug-in cars were more or less highway capable, if not all quite up to the 80-mph goal.  Today's latest round of electric cars have largely met or surpassed the goal, suggesting that--at least for this metric--electric cars are ready to take on the mainstream.

Tesla Motors--always one to demolish preconceptions--has built two models capable of reaching a top speed of 130 mph. Of course, due to aerodynamic drag, driving at those speeds really slashes driving range between battery recharges.

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Practical range

Christensen proposed in 1997 that a range of 125 to 150 miles would be needed for customers to accept electric cars as a substitute for the status quo. This was based more on what drivers think they actually need for daily driving, not on matching the range of existing ICE cars--which is more in the 300- to 400-mile territory.  

MORE: 2016 Chevrolet Volt To Launch Next Year: What We Know So Far

The black line in the graph shows that Christensen might have been taken in a little about the reported range capabilities of the cars of the late Nineties. His trend line seems to be plotted about 25 miles higher than was realistic, although his slope of increase seems to be correct.

Looking into the modern era, the trend of range improvement increases at roughly 2.5 percent per year. Continuing along this trajectory, it might take until 2030 before the bulk of electric cars on sale offer a range of 125 miles or more.

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The wild card in this discussion, as in many discussions of electric cars, is Tesla. In 2008, the company offered the 245-mile Roadster; in 2012, it put on sale the 265-mile Model S.  Both vehicles far exceed the required 125 miles that would let them compete with ICE cars.  

On the other hand, these vehicles carry a price that's perhaps two or three times that of the average vehicle transaction today (about $31,000). At the moment, reaching the required acceptable range seems to push electric cars into an unobtainable price range for the truly mass market.

Acceleration

Back in the 1970s, it was pointless to ask about 0-to-60-mph acceleration times for electric cars--because they couldn't reach 60 mph at all.


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