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After being flayed for not achieving its 2011 sales goal for the Chevy Volt, you might think General Motors would shy away from further volume predictions for its innovative range-extended electric car.
Not so.
CEO Dan Akerson said in late June that the company thought it would sell 35,000 to 40,000 Volts globally this year, including European sales of its Opel/Vauxhall Ampera variation.
His comments, in a speech to the Executives' Club of Chicago, were reported by Bloomberg in late June.
Akerson contrasted that projection to the original 2012 sales target of 60,000, made up of 45,000 Volts in the U.S. and 15,000 in the rest of the world.
U.S. sales of the Volt through July were 10,666, putting the car on track for total 2012 sales of perhaps 18,000 to 20,000. Sales have been especially strong in the crucial California market.
TheOpel and Vauxhall versions of the Volt are known as the Ampera; the differences are largely confined to front styling.
European orders were unexpectedly strong, reaching 7,000 even before the car went on sale.
Through July, GM has sold 2,861 Amperas--perhaps helped by the car's designation as the European Car of the Year--and that number is expected to increase substantially by December.
GM also sold 18 Volts in China; the car just recently went on sale there, though sales of the plug-in electric car are expected to be modest in the price-sensitive Chinese market.
Akerson attributed some of the Volt's lower-than-expected sales to political controversy over the car, which was widely attacked for missing its 2011 sales goal of 10,000. That year, Chevy sold 7,671 Volts in the U.S.
During 2011, GM's technology halo car suffered through a lengthy and very public investigation of a fire in the lithium-ion battery pack of a Volt that had been wrecked in an NHTSA crash test three weeks earlier.
GM offered voluntary modifications to add protection to the battery pack (most Volt owners haven't taken up the offer), and the car was exonerated by the NHTSA, but not before a Congressional hearing on the incident at which Akerson was called to testify.
Akerson said in March of this year that GM would stick with the Volt, despite the lower-than-predicted sales and a myriad of other challenges.
As one Automotive News reporter notes, Akerson's comment may launch a brand-new countdown to see whether Volt/Ampera sales meet the latest goal.
If not, will there be another firestorm of criticism?
Leave us your thoughts in the Comments below.
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On the one hand, it seems like you would need to sell at least 100,000/year of any vehicle to justify the tooling costs.
On the other hand, this is a far larger number than the 2000 or so EV1s (or vehicles from other manufacturers) in the 90's suggesting a market does exist for EVs.
Says who? There are a lot of successful lower volume cars out there. Only the most popular cars are being built over 100k a year. The Volt is not going to be a high volume car.
However, he really sees this as more of a Halo car where the impact on the brand image is more important than sales.
"Tooling" is another "overused" terms. Many of the sheet metals are "stamped". GM has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into "quick and programmable" press that can crank out different sheet metal parts within an hour (ever since the large 1998 UAW strikes). The molded plastic parts are the only thing that require volume for its "tooling". Volt's engine is shared with many of GM's cars.
That is why an unique build like Tesla is expensive.
At the current price, 40k x $40k is $1.6Billion in revenue. That is a decent number for any manufacturer.
The key is if GM can keep up the development of the "Volt family". A new redesign will be needed in 2-3 years and potentially other cars based on the same platform will be launched as well. GM needs to keep it going.
I really hope there is a tall wagon version of the Volt or a small crossover...
No, more than half those (1477 to be precise) were sold in The Netherlands, where a very favourable tax incentive is given to company car drivers. Normally they should add a % of MSRP to their income. The Dutch IRS sees a comany car that is used prvately as salary. But the Ampera is free from this tax, saving the driver easily 1500 Euros annually compared to a Prius and >2000 compared to a standard (non-hybrid) car in the same class.
That should be GM's target. $40k is $10k more than the average selling price of the car in the US. With Volt's size and price, expecting it to sell like the Cruze is unrealistic.
So, either the Volt has to become bigger or it has to drop in price in order to get significant sales improvement.
Prius went through the same thing. Prius was getting larger, better and cheaper over time. Volume improved with it.
That's a good thing as both the Volt n Leaf have been improved for 2013 MY and production capacity increased. Both have proven to be reliable. Govt, business, and folks in CA will be buying these both at a higher clip in 2013.
Predictions: 100K 2013 Volt/Amperas sold worldwide and 50K Leafs
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