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Will 2011 Nissan LEAF Sales Suffer Due To Delayed Roll-Out?

 
2,408 views Dec 23, 2010
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John Duncan takes delivery of one of the first 2011 Nissan LEAF EVs, near Portland OR, 12/15/2010

John Duncan takes delivery of one of the first 2011 Nissan LEAF EVs, near Portland OR, 12/15/2010

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Uh-ho, Nissan. You’ve come out with one of the best five-seat all-electric production cars we’ve ever seen and your pre-order figures are impressive. But as your rival Chevrolet is eagerly rolling out 2011 Range-Extended Volts we’re starting to hear more and more stories that your own rollout isn’t as rosy as we’d hoped. 

So what’s going on? And is the apparent trickle of 2011 Nissan LEAFs reaches customers are consumers going to get bored and shop elsewhere? 

Anything As Long As it Plugs In

First 2011 Nissan Leaf delivered to buyer, San Francisco, Dec 2010, photo by Eugene Lee

First 2011 Nissan Leaf delivered to buyer, San Francisco, Dec 2010, photo by Eugene Lee

Enlarge Photo

Remember the days when Aptera was planning to be the first all-electric car to launch since the death of the EV1?  As it turned out, many of those who had staked a deposit in Aptera’s all-electric 2e had also put deposits down on a Tesla, a ZAP and perhaps some other car long since forgotten about. 

And so it is with the 2011 Nissan LEAF. Hedging their bets, we’ve heard of customers who have deposits down on multiple vehicles. First car to their driveway wins. 

Infrastructure Excuses?

We’ve heard that some customers in delayed markets such as MD, VA, DC and FL have been getting a whole load of excuses from their local dealers as to the reason for the delay. 

One such email cited a lack of charging infrastructure - a common excuse now finding itself in email inboxes in delayed market areas. 

This is hardly coherent with Nissan’s original sales pitch that a range of 100 miles was more than adequate for a daily drive use for most consumers. 

There may be some truth there though. In Europe, Nissan has consciously rolled out the 2011 LEAF to countries known for their support of the electric car before it goes on sale elsewhere.  

Selling in a supported marketplace also means less instances of range anxiety and less running-out-of-charge. Not that we think most users would purposely run out of charge anyway - but still. 

First 2011 Nissan Leaf delivered to buyer, San Francisco, Dec 2010, photo by Eugene Lee

First 2011 Nissan Leaf delivered to buyer, San Francisco, Dec 2010, photo by Eugene Lee

Enlarge Photo

A Victim Of Its Own Success

Infrastructure excuses aside, we think there’s a bigger problem. Nissan just can’t make the number of cars it need to satisfy the worldwide demand. 

Let’s be honest - at the moment Nissan is producing all its cars in one factory. Until the NIssan LEAF production facilities open in Smyrna, TN and Sunderland, U.K., we predict a slow and painful march to owners’ hands. 

Late 2011 For Some

A lot can change in twelve months. That’s the time Nissan says certain markets will be fulfilled, with confirmed orders not occurring until August 2011 at the earliest. 

Well some early adopters grow tired of the wait and will some consumers worried the federal and state incentives will run out before their car arrives switch to a competitor? 

Could Alternatives Exist?

First 2011 Chevrolet Volt delivered to retail buyer Jeffrey Kaffee, in Denville, NJ, December 2010

First 2011 Chevrolet Volt delivered to retail buyer Jeffrey Kaffee, in Denville, NJ, December 2010

Enlarge Photo

 

Right now, few alternatives exist, but the story could easily change in the next few months. Nissan is currently gambling its success on a car it seems to be struggling to fulfil orders for. We have no doubt it will eventually be the rip-roaring success the original 2004 Toyota Prius was but at a cost. 

Some owners will grow tired of the wait and find another solution to their desire to drive electric.





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Comments (29)

  1. By Steve White Posted: 12/23/2010 8:16am PST

    I put down my deposit for a Leaf in the summer, and I've been told my reservation is for January 2011. But here's the catch. There's a 4 to 7 month wait for the actual car to be delivered after the official reservation date. That's a little like having a hotel reservation for January, but when you check in, they tell you the room won't be ready until July.
     
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  2. By George Parrott Posted: 12/23/2010 8:29am PST

    I am one of the "first 200, day 1 Leaf confirmed orders" accepted on 31 August, and it looks like my car will NOT arrive before February ! I am totally NOT happy with Nissan. My local dealer has been wonderful, but Nissan seems to be working on the business model that "they are the only game in town so &****** the consumer in the US. The token deliveries this month are a PR gimmick and most of the media sites are buying into that "smoke." IF, repeat IF, there were any other choice for pure EV now, I WOULD walk away. I have owned Audi, Acura, BMW, Lexus, Infiniti, Honda, Toyota and VW over the years and I have NEVER been treated so callously as this "Nissan buying experience." I am also getting the Volt, and I am able to track the production of that car and even it's delivery progress--my Volt will arrive at or just after New Year's. I have NEVER owned a Chevrolet and my last US car was a specifically ordered 1969 Oldsmobile 442. I lost complete faith in GM with how bad that car was mechanically, and it has taken me this long to "give them another chance." I am not sure HOW LONG it will take me to give Nissan another chance after this disgusting experience of empty promises...
     
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  3. By Emillio Posted: 12/23/2010 9:16am PST

    Boo hoo. Stop sniffling
    To anyone who has a reservation and too impatient to wait I will gladly buy your reservation and give you a cash bonus as well.
    It has been 10 years since I invested into and purchased the Corbinmotors Sparrow EV and another year is just fine with me. I would rather wait and get a vehicle with a little more real world testing and tweaking .
    Get your Volt and sell me your Lef reservation and stop sniffling .
     
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  4. By Chris O Posted: 12/23/2010 10:00am PST

    Nikki: I think your confusing long waiting lists with cars not being delivered in time to customers who bought one already. In the first case the problem is excess demand but in the second case it's production delays. It's pretty clear that Nissan is just not making it's deadlines on production. Not exactly unheard off in the EV game....
     
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  5. By lne937s Posted: 12/23/2010 10:02am PST

    As much as I would like to see more LEAFs on the road here in the US, as a nation we didn't work as hard as other countries to get them here. In Japan, they have already connected the country with quick charging and are scaling up. Portugal is connecting quickly with decent charger density by next summer. We are still in the initial stages of infrastructure deployment with no real plan in place for when this country will be fully connected. This is a competition and the US isn't trying as hard. Other countries want this more and are doing more to make it happen, so they deserve to get more vehicles earlier. I just wish Nissan had enough initial production capacity to fill demand, but that is unlikely till at least when the TN plant starts production in 2012.
     
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  6. By Steve W. Posted: 12/23/2010 10:46am PST

    I don't buy the "Let’s be honest - at the moment Nissan is producing all its cars in one factory." excuse.
    They have delivered only ONE in North America right? In the electronics industry they call this a "paper launch". They had to ship at least SOMETHING, because the Volt is shipping.
    There MUST be a problem with the supply of some part(s), or more likely a serious defect was found.
    If their one factory was actually churning out Leafs, there would be at least hundreds delivered, not just one.
     
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  7. By daveinolywa Posted: 12/23/2010 10:52am PST

    the delay will only hurt if something better comes out. so the "real" question; what exactly is that something? because i have looked at the competition and i saw none.
    Leaf #258 is on its way!!
     
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  8. By George Parrott Posted: 12/23/2010 11:14am PST

    My frustration is with the lack of information from Nissan and the early information that has now turned out to be ...false. IF, I was not in the early roll out area, if I was not one of the early CONFIRMED orders, if I was not repeatedly reassured by Nissan Leaf "customer service" all through September and October that "deliveries would be 3-4 months after the order was confirmed," then I would absolutely NOT be frustrated or complaining. What I am complaining about is the mis-information, the broken assurances, and the complete lack of actual corporate followup on these CONFIRMED early orders.
     
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  9. fb_1001015277 avatar John Briggs Posted: 12/23/2010 11:42am PST

    Well, at least the people in the launch states have some hope of getting a LEAF. Here in Massachusetts, I feel like it will be 2 years before I can get one with a "cold weather package."
     
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  10. By Bert Posted: 12/23/2010 2:20pm PST

    Oh, the melodrama.
    It will get here when it gets here. Geez, have some patience. Such entitlement metality that Nissan owes you this or that.
    They just started production a few months ago. Stop tracking boats and being obsessed with this car. It will get here in due time.
     
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  11. By LBCev Posted: 12/23/2010 2:35pm PST

    I too feel more than a little frustration regarding the LEAF rollout. When I confirmed my order on September 2, I was told that I would receive the car in December or January, meanwhile they have now changed that original 3-4 month delivery window to 4-7 and my delivery window remains "pending". With the first five deliveries out (TN, WA, OR and CAx2) I had some hope that things would move forward, but so far there has been little communication from Nissan regarding my car. I don't think its unreasonable to be disappointed with a company that over promised. If Nissan would have given me a realistic timeframe in the first place, I would be less apt to complain. I assumed that a global company has a better understanding of their supply chain than I do and would build in a buffer for contingencies. They've set the customer expectation and have failed to meet it. One word to Nissan's marketing team - I don't want an email every time you deliver a car to someone else. Thanks!
     
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  12. By Bert Posted: 12/23/2010 3:34pm PST

    "I don't think its unreasonable to be disappointed with a company that over promised."
    If they indeed promised, yes. Did they state they promised a delivery date? Or did they use words like "likely" or "probably."
    There are thousands of reasons for a delay in production or delivery. Maybe it was a realistic time frame for delivery but geez, things happen.
    Some potential Leaf owners are acting like children. Why? Because why? Well, why?
     
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  13. By JohnLACounty Posted: 12/23/2010 7:05pm PST

    I am also a September 1st LEAF order. I also put my initial $99 down in April (over 8 months ago). I am frusterated that Nissan keeps giving me the run around and excuses. I would like a formal letter stating that my order is delayed due to... I would much rather have a formal letter from them instead of free LEAF stickets, magnets and a shirt! I will accept my LEAF whenever I get it BUT I doubt I will ever buy a Nissan again!
     
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  14. fb_100001249908118 avatar Ernie Hernandez Posted: 12/23/2010 11:30pm PST

    Steve W. - Nissan has delivered LEAFs in the US, Japan and Portugal in 11 days. Name any other manufacturer that has launched EVs on a global scale in such a time frame. Ask other EV reservationists how long they have been on a list for their car. Ask other manufacturer reservationists if their car even exists yet. Let me know what you find out.
     
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  15. fb_100001249908118 avatar Ernie Hernandez Posted: 12/23/2010 11:33pm PST

    Nikki - "Well (sic) some early adopters grow tired of the wait and will some consumers worried the federal and state incentives will run out before their car arrives switch to a competitor?" You should know that federal incentives start to roll off after 200,000 vehicles are produced. There is no way that Nissan can produce 200,000 LEAFs for US consumption in the next three years. It's not possible.
     
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  16. fb_100001249908118 avatar Ernie Hernandez Posted: 12/23/2010 11:33pm PST

    Nikki - "Well (sic) some early adopters grow tired of the wait and will some consumers worried the federal and state incentives will run out before their car arrives switch to a competitor?" You should know that federal incentives start to roll off after 200,000 vehicles are produced. There is no way that Nissan can produce 200,000 LEAFs for US consumption in the next three years. It's not possible.
     
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  17. By gary Posted: 12/24/2010 12:31am PST

    The comparison to the volt is laughable, the leaf will ship 50K in 2011 world wide there are only 6,000 reservations in Japan and they would be foolish not to fulfill the home market at a much greater profit then the US. The Volt will produce maybe 10 to 15K, the dealers will gouge the consumers since they let the dealers control the supply/demand equation unlike the leaf. Grow up people, companies run on profit not ideals.
     
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  18. By Steve W. Posted: 12/24/2010 12:59am PST

    Ernie Hernandez - I'm not disputing that they have delivered some EV's in several countries (TEN!! to Portugal!!! WOOPEEEEE!!!). They certainly ship enough ICE cars all over. They could hand build and put a few Leafs on a few boats. I'm just saying that it's not a real launch yet. Can't you see that? Saying that we haven't received our Leafs because there is only one factory is bogus.
    REQUIRED DISCLAIMER: I certainly hope they get the process smoothed out. I have great respect for Nissan, and Yes, they have delivered significantly more cars than Aptera has. :p
     
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  19. By Bill Posted: 12/24/2010 1:46am PST

    Nikki wrote: "And so it is with the 2011 Nissan LEAF. Hedging their bets, we’ve heard of customers who have deposits down on multiple vehicles. First car to their driveway wins."
    Nikki, let's be honest, there is NO competition to the LEAF nor will there be anytime soon. So if people want to buy the first EV that comes along, they have those now. If they want to wait for a 'better' EV, they'll be waiting much longer than for their present LEAF delivery. And if they choose to buy another EV because they think it's too long to wait, they will regret their decision later. Also, pleeeease remember, the Volt is no EV, it's a glorified, expensive hybrid (gen can drive the wheels at ANYTIME). So what I say to people waiting on their LEAFs...patience.
     
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  20. By LBCev Posted: 12/24/2010 8:32am PST

    @Bert, while Nissan gave me a quote "estimated" range, the message was always 3-4 months until November, at which time it changed to 4-7 months. My point is that a huge part of customer service is about managing expectations. If Nissan had simply given me a 4-7 month timeframe in the first place, I would be much more patient. Nissan has done a tremendous job of bringing a viable BEV to market and for that they continue to have my support and commitment to buy the LEAF. That said, the roll out has been anything but well-implemented and they would do well to listen to we early adopters if they have any hope of improving the process for the rest of the country in 2011/2012.
    For your entertainment, an excerpt from one of many chats with Nissan EV Customer Service confirming my original 3-4 month delivery window. To date, my dashboard remains "pending" while others are confirmed for January, February and March.
    Nissan EV CS:
    You are most certainly welcomed. The estimated time to take delivery of your Nissan LEAF is three to four months after you have placed your order.
    Me :
    Ok, so I guess that puts me in the December/January range?
    Nissan EV CS:
    That would be correct.
     
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  21. By paradigm shift Posted: 12/24/2010 11:44am PST

    volt and leaf are apples and oranges; I have a 2010 prius so why would I buy a volt? I will not support bailed out against my will cos. which basically used my own tax money to all of a sudden be 'green' due to competition, i.e. leaf...I don't blame nissan for concentrating on countries with infrastructure...I am sure my leaf will be coming from smyrna tn as it will be about time to replace the honda and as honda seems to have given up on race to electrics and as both chevy, honda, and nissan dealer all two blocks away, it will still be cool to see them all competing, IF Honda pulls their heads out of their as*es.
     
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  22. By ev enthusiast Posted: 12/24/2010 4:01pm PST

    i think americans have a right to be angry. it seems to me, from what i have read, is that nissan is supplying those countries first that are most profitable to them. after having made promises, and accepted deposits.
    now, if they had cut back every country the same percentage, then i think it would be a different story. they simply are having a problem producing what they thought they could, and cut back everyone the same.
    as has been noted, there is no competition yet. the coda has been delayed 9 months. but it looks like nissan has been delayed the same amount, regarding deliveries to the u.s.
    i dont think the delay will hurt nissan, since they are already a big name. but their first u.s. sales may be in current competition with the ford focus, and whatever other cars are coming out.
    but i still think that for at least a year or two, the demand for evs will outstrip the supply, such that all evs will sell.
    it hurts coda a lot more, cuz they are a new name, and it would have been most helpful to them to get a good start for a year, before the bigger names came to being. it just means that the coda will need to be price competitive and a little better quality, right from the get-go.
     
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  23. By lne937s Posted: 12/25/2010 12:52pm PST

    Ernie- "There is no way that Nissan can produce 200,000 LEAFs for US consumption in the next three years. It's not possible."
    Actually, the Tennessee plant comes online in Summer of 2012 with a 150,000 Leaf capacity (battery production of 200k for other models). So the first year and a half will have limited supply, but they should be running out of credits some time in 2013. So not only is it possible for them to run out of credits in the first three years, the current plan is for them to run out in 2 1/2 years.
     
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  24. By bill Posted: 12/25/2010 1:44pm PST

    i reserved a leaf it was supposed to be delivered in February now i have a 6-9 month wait? not me. how do i get my deposit back? anyone know?
     
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  25. By Roy H Posted: 12/25/2010 5:40pm PST

    It has pretty much been the norm for EVs to miss their target date. Tesla Roadster about 2 years, Aptera's new management made the unfortunate decision to change market focus, requiring extensive upgrades and now years late, Fisker promised deliveries for Karma in 2009, now says mid 2011 and $15k more, Cods was supposed to be out in 2009. All these are new companies, inexperienced in the highly competitive and complex auto business, and I think can be excused for their delays (although I thought Fisker would be better with their automotive background). GM's Volt schedule was remarkably precise and I would even characterize Nissan's slower than expected roll-out to still be very good. I do agree that as soon as Nissan realized that deliveries would be delayed, they should have been forthcoming.
    But the article suggests that frustrated would-be LEAF owners will jump ship and buy something else. What else? The closest vehicle with similar features and range is the Coda, and it is more expensive and delayed. (I don't think many would consider the Volt to be an equivalent alternative.)
    So LEAF customers will simply have to accept the 4-7 month delay. In a couple of years even those complaining will be happy with their LEAFs and be more forgiving (unless there turns out to be problems).
     
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  26. fb_1089324431 avatar Tom Saxton Posted: 12/26/2010 10:30am PST

    When a product is delayed, people complain until it's delivered. When a product is rushed out the door and fails to meet expectations, people complain forever. Obviously, it's taking Nissan longer than they expected to get up to full production. That happens, especially when you're doing something you've never done before. I'm confident they will get up to speed and deliver a great car. I'd much rather have a great car than an early delivery date.
     
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  27. By  Car Buyer Posted: 12/29/2010 4:18am PST

    Does this apply to the UK too ? Been on the news that the first Leaf's (Leaves) were due in January.
     
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  28. By Bill Hoke Posted: 12/31/2010 10:00pm PST

    Tom Saxton - well put. Give them a break and a little more time. This is new stuff they're doing ... and new stuff their suppliers are doing. These are the early days, and there will be some variation in the plan.
     
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  29. By Josh Posted: 1/23/2011 3:25pm PST

    What the media is not discussing is the fact the Japan use to smuggle out large amounts of rare earth elements from China through Vietnam which are need to make the leaf.. China has clamped down and now there is not enough rare earth to make the parts for the car..
     
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