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Here at GreenCarReports, we often hear excuses from people who say they want to buy an electric car but feel unable to.
Aside from increased sticker price, one of the more common excuses given is the worry that an electric car won’t meet their mileage needs due to range limitations per charge -- despite historical data suggesting that electric cars could easily handle around 80 percent of all daily driving in the U.S.
Now a new study by two doctoral students at the school of Engineering and Applied Science at Columbia University has increased that figure, estimating that electric cars could meet as much as 95 percent of all daily driving needs of U.S. citizens.
Using data obtained from the Department of Transport’s 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), Garrett Fitzgerald and Rob van Haaren analyzed the travel data of survey participants, concluding that 95 percent of the 748,918 recorded single-trip journeys by car were under 30 miles.
More astonishingly, around 98 percent of all single-trip journeys were under 50 miles in length, with trips over 70 miles in length accounting for just one percent of all single-trip journeys.
The average single-trip distance? Just 5.95 miles. And while rural respondents naturally traveled further on average than their urban counterparts, 95 percent of all rural-based trips were still under 50 miles.
But as Fizgerald and van Haaren point out in their study, with limited public charging stations for electric cars, single-trip distances aren’t the best way to evaluate just how suitable electric cars are for the average consumer.
As a consequence, they turned attention to both average U.S. car commute distances, and total number of miles driven in a single day.
Of the 106,681 survey participants who drove to work every day in a car, 95 percent of them travelled less than 40 miles to work, with the average commute distance being 13.6 miles.
Because of how the study was conducted, 39 percent of cars owned by participating households in the 2009 NHTS were not driven on study days examining total mileage drive. But of the 179,848 cars examined that were used on what the study calls the Travel Day, 93 percent of them drove less than 100 miles.
The average daily drive total for urban-based cars was just 36.5 miles, while rural-based cars drove an average of 48.6 miles.
Admittedly, considering the number of cars on the roads of the U.S. today, it is only right to acknowledge that the sample size is a tiny proportion of the actual number of cars being driven daily.
However, given the source of the data, we’re inclined to think it has been impartially and carefully collected.
Now that plug-in cars have been categorically proven fit-for-purpose for even more U.S. citizens than previously thought, the real hard part begins: making electric and plug-in cars affordable for those who want to own them.
And that takes more than just statistics.
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Once it easy for the consumer to make the case then they will buy, at present only a small % of consumers can make the case.
In addition overseas competition will force down the price as overseas manufacturers are not under the same lobbying pressures as those in the USA. So there will be more choice of product. In the past the EV market was a fiction at best. I think it is real now.
My first laptop cost a month's salary now it costs a day's. The market is set such that the same rules can apply to EVs. It is almost like we need a Moore's Law for EVs !!
Neil
Do I get a PhD now?
The summarized daily driving is the more important number. It seems to be around 40 miles +/- 10 miles, so much higher than the average trip, and its round trip). Still, that sounds great, but it also means that *most* persons could be doing a lot of driving above the average, for example every third day, or weekend. More important would be to ask:
What is the maximum daily driving in a week (including the weekend), and what is the maximum daily driving in 1 month or in 3 months. A single line in a graph can't even answer this question.
How many drivers would need to rent a car, how often per year, for an EV with a range of 40, 80, 120, 200, 300 miles, if that EV was their only car? And how many of them would be willing to actually do rent as often as needed, given the current lack of fast-charging networks? How many of them have a second car available which they could easily use instead?
That would lead you to believe that the Volt ( range EPA 35 miles, inofficially 40-50 miles) could do almost all driving electrically. However, real-word experience shows that it is actually 2/3 electrically: out of 2 million miles driven by Volts as of August 2011, about 700,000 miles were by gasoline.
So most is in fact electrically, but not as much as you might expect from the report.
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