Two Things About Electric Cars The Wall Street Journal Missed

By John Voelcker

John Voelcker

Senior Editor BIO

John is Senior Editor for High Gear Media. In addition to news coverage and new car reviews, John creates and oversees all editorial for High Gear's... More

LATEST ARTICLE
2013 Nissan Altima: 31-MPG Combined Rating For Mid-Size Sedan
Today's the day when we can talk about the all-new 2013 Nissan Altima, the latest generation of... Read More

• #4LEADERBOARD RANK
• 2324ARTICLES CONTRIBUTED
• 1030COMMENTS POSTED

1,456 views Oct 18, 2010

Follow John

Add to circle

2011 Nissan Leaf

Enlarge Photo

We read a lot of stuff about green cars and, lately, most of it's about electric cars.

Sometimes the coverage is unquestioning and adulatory. More often it's cranky and dismissive. But major media outlets are working hard to understand the complexities of what is a huge, slow, expensive, and very complex transition to another type of vehicle and powertrain.

A piece with yesterday's date in The Wall Street Journal entitled, "Bumpy Road For Electrics," got most of the essential elements right.

Familiar concerns

Writer Mike Ramsey notes that 20-odd electric models will be offered in the U.S. market within three years, and that some manufacturers (Nissan, with its 2011 Leaf all-electric hatchback) are far more optimistic about sales prospects than others (he names Ford, Honda, and Toyota).

He also cites "experts" who reel off a by-now-familiar litany of concerns: "Electric cars are too expensive, take too long to recharge and don't provide enough driving range before they run out of juice to be practical for most Americans."

And he quotes Alex Molinaroli of Johnson Controls Inc., whose research found that "the pool of U.S. customers for whom an electric car makes financial sense—those who travel many miles a year, but on short trips—is very small, about 3 percent of drivers."

2011 Nissan Leaf

Enlarge Photo

Missing global context

Which leads us to the first of our two major criticisms: The article lacks any kind of context to give readers a sense of the likely pace of electric-car rollout. Which, despite those 20 models he cites, is going to be slow.

Specifically, most industry analysts expect pure electric cars to represent at most 2 percent of global production fully 10 years hence, in 2020. Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn's suggestion that 10 percent of his company's production in 2020 will be electric cars is widely considered an outlier.

The missing context: Even 1 percent of the global market in 2020 might represent 1 million electric cars. And, in that same year, those same analysts expect hybrids to be more than 10 percent--even if they're no longer labeled "hybrid," with all the cultural baggage that name carries.

Almost 1 billion vehicles globally

That's because the world produces about 80 million vehicles a year (roughly 10 million of them in North America), perhaps reaching as high as 100 million by 2020. (There are now about 800 million vehicles on the planet, which some say could rise to as many as 2.5 billion over the next 30 years.)

The auto industry has long lead times (it takes 4-5 years to develop a brand-new car), and new cars are brutally expensive. It will take several iterations of design to make today's costly lithium-ion battery packs affordable enough that electric cars can compete head-to-head on purchase price. (They already win on running costs per mile.)

We wish Ramsey had added that context, since we often hear an assumption that in three to five years, electric cars will be close to dominating the market. And that's wildly unrealistic.

Range anxiety, sure...if you only have one car

A Honda executive, Robert Bienefeld, has experience to back up his assessment: He was involved with Honda's EV Plus electric-car efforts in the late 1990s.

He cites the oft-used "I might not be able to take my kid to the hospital at 2 am" concern over battery electric vehicles with 100 miles of range that may not have recharged. It's known as range anxiety.

Yes and no: First, the average U.S household has more than 2 cars, and no one will make all three battery electrics with limited range. There will likely always be one car with gasoline power for long trips or emergencies. Day to day, families will plan around an EV's range just as they now plan around their cars' carrying capacity and number of seats.