Boston Consulting Groups Says Hybrids and EVs Will Continue to Gain Market Share

By Eric Loveday

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Eric Loveday is a car enthusiast with a love for everything automotive. He purchased a 1970 Chevelle at age 16, quickly outgrew its dated engineering... More

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867 views Jan 18, 2010

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Despite high costs for batteries, Boston Consulting Group predicts that more and more hybrids and electrics vehicles will be on our roads in the future.

BCG conducted in-depth studies into battery costs for EVs and plug-in vehicles.  Their findings suggest that a battery pack the size of the one found in the Chevy Volt costs upwards of $16,000 when all factors are considered.  Adding in such things as development, engineering, testing, shipping costs, etc, batteries are incredibly expensive right now.

BCG reports that automakers are aiming for batteries to cost around $2,000 within the next 10 years.  Though they may target this low numbers of $2,000, BCG estimates that batteries will still cost between $8,000 and $10,000 by 2020.  However, there is an upside.  Despite the high costs in 2020, BCG research suggests that range will indeed increase and they anticipate a typical range for an EV in 2020 to be around 160 to 190 miles.  The range estimates are approximately double the range of today's EVs.

Even with high costs, the findings suggest that EVs will begin to gain market share.  BCG estimates that 14 million vehicles worldwide will utilize some form of battery power for motivation by 2020, though full EVs may still only make-up a fraction of that amount.

As Xavier Mosquet of BCG said, "You will definitely see more hybrid cars on the road in the future.  The Chevrolet Volt is necessary for energy independence purposes.  But the big question is how big this market will be."

The research conducted by BCG conclude what many of us already are aware of.  Steps towards electrification are gradual.  First you will see an influx in traditional hybrids, followed by a rise in demand for plug-in hybrids and finally the emergence of the full electric drive vehicle.  Getting there may take some time, but the goal is in sight and automakers have shown that they are committed.

Source:  Detroit Free Press  Print Edition