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CA Drivers Want Carpool-Lane Access, Honda Gives It To Them (But There's A Catch)

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2014 Honda Accord Plug-In Hybrid

2014 Honda Accord Plug-In Hybrid

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Say "carpool lane" or "HOV Access" or "white sticker" or "green sticker," and most California commuters will begin to drool uncontrollably.

The ability to drive in relatively uncrowded High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes with just a single person in the vehicle is a privilege that Californians will pay for.

And that's precisely why the state allowed 85,000 owners of three different hybrids to apply for stickers that let them do just that, ending in 2011.

The availability of those 85,000 stickers helped to jump-start sales of the Toyota Prius, Honda Civic Hybrid, and first-generation Honda Insight in the state, reducing vehicle emissions and helping manufacturers sell more to bring down their costs.

Did we mention that the Toyota Prius hybrid is now the most popular car in California?

Green and white stickers

Now the state wants to do the same for vehicles that run some or all of the time on battery power alone, and natural gas too.

It offers California Clean Air Vehicle Decal white stickers--for zero-emission vehicles including battery-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, plus natural-gas vehicles--and a limited number of 40,000 green stickers, for plug-in hybrids.

Yesterday, Honda put out a press release touting the fact that it offers four different cars that qualify for one of these stickers--more than any other manufacturer.

That's true, although all four are currently offered only in a few limited markets.

They are the 2014 Honda Accord Plug-In Hybrid, which gets a green sticker, and three models eligible for white stickers: the 2013 Honda Civic Natural Gas, the 2013 Honda Fit EV, and the 2013 Honda FCX Clarity fuel-cell vehicle.

It's too early to tell how the Accord Plug-In Hybrid will sell, since it just went on sale in January, and Honda had sold only 19 through the end of February.

But if it sells at the rate of the Prius Plug-In Hybrid, we might be looking at 10,000 to 12,000 units a year--perhaps less, since it's more expensive.

2012 Honda Civic Natural Gas

2012 Honda Civic Natural Gas

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Low volumes times 3

What Honda's press release didn't mention was that sales of the other three will be extremely low-volume.

The 2013 Honda Civic Natural Gas is sold in more states than its predecessor, the Civic GX that ran through 2011.

Honda hasn't broken out how many it sold last year, but the GX sold less than 2,000 in an average year, so we expect fewer than 5,000 natural-gas fueled Civics were sold.

Honda has said it will only build 1,100 Fit EV battery-electric conversions of its subcompact Fit over three years, and those won't even be sold, only leased.

The Honda Fit EV is a fun car, but it's also a compliance car, so the Fit EVs will likely be taken off the road after the three-year leases expire.

Finally, there's the Honda FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel-cell car. Last year, Honda delivered 5 of them--and 2 the year before.

Honda says it does not expect its planned fuel-cell vehicles to break even before 2025, so it will continue to lease only low numbers of those cars as well.

Honda FCX Clarity

Honda FCX Clarity

Enlarge Photo

More vehicles, fewer stickers

In other words, if you want to buy a Honda to travel solo in the carpool lane, it's likely to be an Accord Plug-In Hybrid, or possibly a Civic Natural Gas.

Last year, in comparison, Chevy sold 23,500 Volts nationwide. This year, Tesla is likely to deliver something between 14,000 and 20,000 Model S luxury sedans.

Then there's Ford, which could deliver 15,000 or so of its C-Max Energi and Fusion Energi plug-in hybrids together--and Toyota with another 10,000 or 12,000 Prius Plug-In sales.

So while Honda has the most models that qualify for stickers, there will be far fewer sticker-bearing Hondas on the road.

Isn't math fun?

+++++++++++

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Comments (9)
  1. Do you know when they will vote on the proposed bill to extend the green and white stickers through 2025?
     
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  2. @John: Nice summary, lots of interesting numbers.

    It will be interesting to see what vehicles continue to receive the HOV incentive after another 50,000 vehicles/stickers are added to carpool lanes.
     
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  3. In reply to both Brian n Jeremy,

    Unlikely we'll see a combined number of green n white carpool stickers issued/used here in CA till at least 2017. Green carpool stickers have only been issued to 9K vehicles the last I heard so probably about 20k or so by the time the current carpool use sticker law is set to expire(first day of 2015). White car pool sticker totals are probably less then that even though they've been issued for over decade now but to a very few eligible number of vehicles...till recently.

    I was told by a successful pip seller at a large Toyota dealer in so cal that the expiration dates for both green n white sticker carpool lane use would be extended several years later this year in the legislature.
     
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  4. So....with less then half the allotment of the 40k green carpool stickers sold by 2015 n lower numbers of total white carpool stickers issued, it would make a lot of sense for the state to extend the use of the carpool stickers to at least 2017 or perhaps 2020. I very much doubt 2025 though...maybe for the white stickers(hopefully the state removes the natural gas vehicles as eligible for this sticker by then too) but very unlikely for the transitional plug-in vehicles of today. Perhaps they'll require greater range, mpge, and mpg for new green carpool stickers to be issued. How 'bout at least 50 miles of all ev range, mpge of 100+, and mpg of 50+. No current plug-in hybrid would qualify but the next gen Volt might.
     
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  5. Actually, I heard the rumor is that they will require it to have more EV range than its "extended range". So, the upcoming i3 with REx is perfectly designed for that special exemption.
     
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  6. "The ability to drive in relatively uncrowded High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes with just a single person in the vehicle is a privilege that Californians will pay for."

    Are you kidding me? Have you driven the Bay area HOV lanes during peak rush hour?

    Sure, it is moving. But @ a speed of 35 mph!!!

    There is always a few slow drivers that clog up the lane b/c they are afraid of the stop-go traffic jumping in front...
     
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  7. "Honda hasn't broken out how many it sold last year, but the GX sold less than 2,000 in an average year, so we expect fewer than 5,000 natural-gas fueled Civics were sold."

    Actually ONLY 1462 were sold.

    http://www.hybridcars.com/december-2012-dashboard
     
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  8. @Xiaolong: Ah, right, thank you! Hadn't thought to look on HYBRIDcars.com for natural-gas sales figures, but apreciate the link.
     
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  9. Ford has 3. Chevy has 1 (soon 2). Toyota also has 2. Honda has 4 models. Nissan has 1.

    But in the order of total sales, it is the brands that have the fewer models (1 or 2) that has the most sales. (Volt, Tesla S, Leaf and PIP). Followed by Ford and then Honda. Of course, small brands such as Mitsubishi or Coda are not counted here.

    I guess it is the quality of the offering that matters, NOT the quantity of the offering...

    I imagine if Honda sells E-Fit in the price range of the Leaf, it would have been different.

    BTW, I saw my first 2 E-RAV4 this week. And I am tired of seeing Tesla S, both on the roads and being delivered on a truck. :) Still no E-Focus sighting or Fusion energi yet. Volt, Leaf, Tesla S are everywhere.
     
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