Nissan Leaf Electric-Car Sales Slump: What's Happening Here?
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Ryan Reynolds and Ryan Hall in an ad for the 2012 Nissan Leaf
Last year it was the Chevy Volt, which went through several months of slow sales before rebounding in the spring.
This year, it's the Nissan Leaf, the world's highest-volume battery-electric car, whose U.S. sales have slumped to just 600 a month or less--and stayed there since early this year.
Just 3,148 Leafs were sold in the first six months of 2012, fewer than the 3,875 delivered from January to June of 2011.
According to Al Castignetti, vice president of sales for Nissan Division in the U.S., monthly Leaf sales will remain at a level of 500 to 1,000 cars a month until December.
That's when the revised, U.S.-built 2013 Leaf model starts rolling off assembly lines in Smyrna, Tennessee--interspersed with Nissan Altimas, Maximas, and other gasoline cars.
He stuck with the prediction that Nissan will deliver a total of 20,000 Leafs in the U.S. by the end of March 2013, however.
Yesterday, Green Car Reports interviewed Castignetti about low Leaf sales in 2012.
He attributed the results to three factors:
(1) Lumpy transition to dealer wholesaling
By far the biggest factor in the low sales numbers, Castignetti said, was the March 1 transition from a centralized reservation and assignment system to a more traditional dealer wholesaling model.
Rather than delivering Leafs to local dealerships only after a buyer has been confirmed, Nissan now ships electric cars to its dealers either to fulfill dealer orders or as part of a mix of vehicle allotments.
The move was made, he said, because Nissan didn't feel the online "Nissan journey" model of taking reservations and assigning cars individually could scale to the volume of orders it expects in 2013.
"That was OK at the start, with low volume" in the first year, Castignetti said.
But next year, Nissan can build up to 12,000 Leafs a month in Smyrna if sales demand.
What on earth makes Nissan think it can sell up to 50 times as many Leafs each month?
Upgrades for 2013 Leaf models
"We have things planned for the [updated] 2013 model that will help it in the marketplace," Castignetti said--which likely include a better heater, available leather seats, and an optional 6.6-kilowatt charger.
The U.S.-built 2013 Nissan Leaf could also be less expensive than earlier models built in Oppama, Japan, which suffer from the historically high Yen-dollar exchange rate. U.S. Leafs will use U.S.-built lithium-ion cells in their batteries.
At the same time as it started shipping Leafs direct to dealers on the wholesale model, the company completed its rollout of the Leaf across all 50 states.
That meant it had to fill a delivery pipeline with Leaf models, fitted with the options most appropriate for given regions, to dealers throughout the country--not just early adopter states like California, Oregon, and Washington.
Fine-tuning that process has taken time, he said, in figuring out where to allocate vehicles.
"I've got 3,000 Leafs in dealer inventory now, but some dealers still have zero cars," Castignetti said. "It's a dispersion issue."
(2) Misunderstanding of how different Leaf buyers are from other Nissan customers
The bigger issue, he admitted, was that Nissan greatly underestimated the effort required to market electric cars at the local level.
"We learned it was somewhat naive to assume we could wholesale the Leaf like an internal-combustion car," Castignetti said.
"No one walks into a Nissan dealer, crosses over from an Altima, a Maxima, or a Pathfinder, and decides to buy a Leaf instead."
"We thought dealers would take the car just like any other, but it's a totally different audience," the sales chief acknowledged.
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it seems to be the biggest complaint by far.
http://gas2.org/2009/12/01/with-new-battery-nissan-plans-to-double-ev-range-by-2015/
Doubling the range would go along way in making the car more mainstream, but I do believe price is still the main issue. Too bad there is an obvious trade off between these two problems.
range, whatever the issue, applies to all evs.
if nissan has even hinted at changing that, it would almost definitely curtail sales to a large degree.
another question - if one is driving in cold or hot climates with a battery that does not have thermal management, and therefore probably needs to be charged more often - does that also mean that the life of the battery is also reduced ?
Leather seats and a better heater, the geezer is clearly in lala land.
With corporate BS like that Nissan have not got a hope capturing hearts and minds.
Your typical Leaf buyer will be a well educated professional to "tempt" them as if they were some mindless Kardashian worshipper is arrant nonsense.
Castignetti needs to start looking for ago on Jersey Shore.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=11829
Nissan took the expensive rare earth's out of the motor's magnets (makes it cheaper) - pretty staggering really when you consider the 2013's are 100lbs lighter. Lease only thank you very much...
showrooms. For Nissan and the Leaf's sake,I hope there are far brainier company folks thinking about the car's many problems.
1. Extreme conservatism of car-buyers. It took a decade for most drivers to become sufficiently familiar with and trusting of hybrids to consider buying one. Absent a compelling need such as 1970s-style fuel disruptions, that is likely for plug-ins, too.
2. The fossil-fuel-industry-fueled mainstream-media-and-Republican-party anti-environmentalism, making caring about climate change seem uncool for many, unnecessary for many more.
3. Too few have experienced the exceptional driving experience of an EV. Even word-of-mouth needs help as, despite invitations, few have driven my Volt since 2010.
A visit to the Chevy dealership was even worse.
I think Tesla wins, hands down, with their retail stores in malls. Everyone selling a Tesla will love Tesla, just like everyone who sells Apples loves Apple products. Excitement is contagious, and no other car company can generate this kind of excitement.
1. Price. (Still too high. Drop it to $29k before the rebates and it will sell like hot cakes).
2. Battery. (Warranty it and add better cooling)
3. Charger. (3.3KW is too slow. 6.6KW is needed for lower cost in public charging station and match Ford Focus EV).
With limiting range, Leaf would need a good support network in the public to sell well. Public charging is EXPENSIVE. Some of the SF Bay Area charging stations cost anywhere between $1/hr to $2.75/hr. That is too much. Leaf can only charge about 10-15 miles in range per hour with its 3.3KW charger. At those prices, a Prius or the Volt is cheaper to run.
The only way to get rid of all your remaining battery anxiety might be to lease though since I don't think capacity is going to be warranted any time soon.
In particular, in my opinion, the 2013 Leaf needs a faster (6.6 kWH) on-board charger and an active thermal management system (to keep the main batteries cool in the summer and warm in the winter).
These things, unfortunately, add cost to the vehicle. And a rising price tag puts the Leaf in firmer competition with so-called pricier EVs such as the Ford Focus Electric and BMW Active E.
Corrections to article:
1) New Mitsu Miev EV n Ford Focus EV are direct competitors to Leaf not mentioned in the article. These vehicles may not be immediately available to all Americans but some don't mind waiting another few months for them.
2) 2013 Leaf is also competing directly against its 2012 brother. As the article and some have stated on this post, the 2013 will be better so why not wait a little longer.
Comments to replies above:
1) The price is fine for the Leaf now...however, Nissan should not raise price till next gen Leaf...even though more features are being added. Cost of EVs to operate is far lower then non-evs so total costs of ownership will be lower over time.
3) Therefore range is the vital feature to improve. If Nissan were to manage to increase the range to 130 or higher, many more folks would purchase the 2013 Leaf. However, this is unlikely to be done for the 2013 MY.
Suggestions:
1. Nissan needs to focus on increasing the Leaf range to at least 120 by the 2014 MY.
2. One way to increase range is to offer a coupe Leaf having just two seats and small area under hatchback. That should shave off at least 500 lbs. Use composites and other lighter alloys to shave off another couple hundred pounds as well.
4. Offer meeting space inside dealerships for local Leaf clubs to meet once a month. These meetings could enlighten potential Leaf buyers as well as Nissan dealership staff.
5. Provide a once a month free EV charge at dealerhips for Leaf buyers.
6. Inform the driving public and especially those at Nissan dealerships viewing Leaf of the simple, better economics of the Leaf compared to conventional vehicles.
hmmm, with 600 LEAFs currently being sold each month, somebody better check their math..
It's an expensive "spare tire" to have sitting in the garage because of it's limited range..........just like the "doughnut spare" in many cars.
And I agree about the price/fuel equation. My 1998 mazda 626 finally died last month with 176000 miles on it. At 26mpg average, I used 6770 gallons of gas, and at an avg. price of $2.5 through those 14 years, I paid $16,925 in gas. The leaf at $0.026 per mile, will cost you $4600 for the same mileage. Sure, the batteries will need to be replaced; but in 8 years they will be much cheaper.
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