Are Electric Cars Really Bad For The Planet? Simple Math Says No

 
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2011 Nissan Leaf SL

2011 Nissan Leaf SL

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We all know that electric cars charged from renewable sources of energy are much cleaner than gasoline-powered cars, but what about electric cars charged from electricity produced by a dirty coal-fired power plant? 

For some time, those against the uptake of electric cars have claimed driving an electric car powered by electricity from a coal-fired power plant is as bad -- if not worse -- than driving a gasoline car on an environmental level. 

Not so, says soon-to-be Nissan Leaf owner Mark D Larsen,  who has taken some time out to demonstrate with some simple math why the 2012 Nissan Leaf doesn’t pollute as badly as a comparable gasoline car

“I cannot tell you how many times I have heard the old, worn-out ‘long tailpipe’ argument against electric vehicles, i.e., that they are more harmful than gasoline cars on the environment because they get their electricity from dirty coal-fired power plants,” writes Larsen on his website.  “It seems like every time an article, blog, forum, tweet, video or news release mentions an electric car lately, petrolpuppets immediately jump on it and post derisive comments with that same broken-record accusation.”

Nissan Leaf CO2 Output When Charged With Coal

Nissan Leaf CO2 Output When Charged With Coal

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To silence the claims once and for all, Larsen decided to build a webpage which sets out the energy requirements -- and carbon dioxide output -- required to drive 100 miles in both a 2012 Nissan Leaf and 2012 Nissan Versa. 

Taking into consideration the efficiency of the charging station, the grid efficiency of the power transmission from the power station to his home, and the carbon dioxide output of a dirty coal power plant, Larsen calculates that his 2012 Nissan Leaf would be responsible for creating 42,665 grams of carbon dioxide for every 100 miles travelled. 

Larsen then takes a 2012 Nissan Versa and carries out the same calculation.

Taking into account the 6 kilowatt-hours of electricity used to refine one gallon of gasoline, the carbon dioxide ‘dirty coal’ footprint of that electricity and the actual carbon dioxide emissions from the car’s engine, Larsen calculated that the 2012 Nissan Versa produces 50,332 grams of carbon dioxide for every 100 miles travelled.

2012 Nissan Versa CO2 Output

2012 Nissan Versa CO2 Output

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His conclusion? 

Even if a 2012 Nissan Leaf is charged exclusively from electricity generated by coal-fired power stations, it produces 15 percent less carbon dioxide than a 2012 Nissan Versa. 

But while he used 100 percent coal-fired electricity for his calculations, Larsen argues that for U.S. consumers, only 45 percent of electricity nationwide comes from coal-fired power stations. 

In other words, electric cars are even cleaner. 

Unlike some electric car emissions calculations we’ve seen, Larsens’ are particularly simple, and verifiable using the links provided on his website. 

What do you think of the calculations? Has anything been left out? Let us know in the Comments below. 

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Comments (63)
  1. It would also be interesting to know about other pollutants such as CO, NOx, etc. Not clear if that is better or worse with burning coal versus gasoline.

    Also, what is the relative environmental destruction of coal mining versus oil drilling?

    In the end, it is probably unimportant as we clearly need to move away from both coal and gasoline.
     
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  2. Yes, there is plenty of anti plug-in FUD out there and it's not just about the long tailpipe argument either. Media matters has made a list of fake arguments spread recently by conservative media outlets about electric motoring in general and the Volt in particular and added an extensive rebuttal:

    http://mediamatters.org/research/201202080012

    It seems like an uphill battle though. Most people will prefer to gobble up the sh.t the likes of FOX news feed them than to actually take the trouble to educate themselves I'm afraid. Kudos to Mark D Larsen for his effort though.
     
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  3. Let's run the same numbers in pounds and with EPA's official emission rates (http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-resources/egrid/index.html). The Versa is simple: 22lbs of CO2/gallon, so 72.6lbs to go 100 miles. For the Leaf, the total KWH required for 100 miles of (27.6KWH * 100 / 73) = 37.8 KWH . Assuming baseload power, the US average is 1.36 lbs/kWH, for a total of 51.4lbs, definitely better than the Versa.

    But the worst state is 2.3lbs/kwh, so the Leaf generate 86.9 lbs of CO2, or worse than the Versa (emissions in DC would be even higher). In fact, in 10 states and Wash DC the Versa produces less emissions than the Leaf.

    So by this calculation the Leaf is better in 40 states and worse in 10.
     
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  4. David: I'm not sure how you tally your figure of 22 lbs. of CO2/gallon. I haven't been able to find it in the eGrid tables (yet), but... I'll keep looking. If you prefer lbs. instead of grams, the 15,100 grams that I tally = 33.29 lbs. of CO2/gallon.

    Since a gallon of gas produces 19.4 lbs. at the tailpipe, are you saying that refining that gallon upstream only produces... 2.5 lbs.?

    All I can say is that the 6 kWh/per gallon in my table comes from a Program Analyst at the DOE, using stats from the Argonne and Oak Ridge National Laboratories. When we multiple that by the 11,050 grams (2.31 lbs.) of CO2/kWh emitted by 100% dirty coal, we get 6,300 grams (13.89 lbs.) at the power plant.
     
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  5. I would argue Mark's comparison is still too biased in favor of gasoline. The comparison takes into account electric line losses but not the equivalent shipping of oil and final transport of gasoline.
     
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  6. ooooooooops, he forgets grid-efficiency to provide the petrolrefinery ;-)

    so the versa is probably even a bit worse! ;-)
     
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  7. Most refineries generate a lot of their own energy on site from "waste products" so the electrical grid should not be used. Refineries tend to be quite efficient with all the heat capture they do and so on; after all if you loose 1% of a gallon in production it does not matter much... until you process a million gallons and suddenly you start caring lots about very small numbers.
     
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  8. Uh... yes, but I assume those "waste products" also emit CO2 when generating "their own energy." Do you know how much?

    It seems to me that, if we're going to use petroleum products to generate electricity, it be better to put those electrons into an EV's battery pack, rather than refine gasoline that produces even more CO2 when burned. And as other have pointed out, it also takes additional kWh (more CO2) to drill, extract, transport, and pump fossil fuels --something which these calculations do not even include.

    The bottom line, I think, is that fossil fuels will run out. Sooner or later. I would rather not wait until then to develop other alternatives.
     
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  9. Another factor, not mentioned in the article, is the "Grid Efficiency" of delivering gasoline to gas stations. How much CO2 do those tanker trailers produce just hauling all of that fuel around?
     
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  10. This is a great comparison and a solid calculation to the merits of efficiency and cleanliness of EVs compared to ICEs. Given the fact that oil from the tar sands in Alberta require even more energy to extract and produce before refining are going to alter these numbers in favour of EVs drastically. According to the National Energy Board of Canada, Natural gas requirements for the oil sands industry are projected to increase substantially during the projected period from 17 million cubic metres (0.6 billion cubic ft) per day in 2003 to a range of 40 to 45 million cubic metres (1.4-1.6 billion cubic ft)/day in 2015. That's a tremendous amount of energy and Canada is now the leading exporter of oil to the US. Also, what about those pumps?
     
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  11. What about the environmental impact of the lithium ion batteries? Lithium is also a finite source and is collected by strip mining. Let's also consider the environmental impact of disposing of the used up batteries not to mention the cost of replacing the batteries.

    If you want to impact the planet the least, buy a used car that gets decent gas mileage. Not a cure to get us off oil though. Just don't tell me a new EV is doing the environment any good. What we need is cars that run on clean abundant fuel like hydrogen and/or solar power.
     
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  12. @William: Hydrogen is not "abundant" in the H2 form that can be used as a fuel. It take a great deal of energy to break it loose from the molecules it's usually found in (hydrocarbons, say). So unless you are using entirely renewable energy to separate natural gas (or water, or whatever) into hydrogen and some other component, there is a great deal of energy required to produce that fuel. That's why hydrogen has shaky wells-to-wheels carbon footprint, and why electric-vehicle advocates point out that it's far more efficient to use that electricity to power a car than to make H2, transport it around, and run it through a fuel cell to produce ... electricity to run the car.
     
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  13. “It seems like every time an article, blog, forum, tweet, video or news release mentions an electric car lately, petrolpuppets immediately jump on it and post derisive comments with that same broken-record accusation.”

    You realize of course he meant people like you by that?
     
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  14. Why would you ever throw away a Lithium battery... in a river upstream from an orphanage run by kittens!?!
    Disposal is reuse, recondition and recycle. The amount of Li in an Li-ion battery is about 2%.
    Clever battery management extends its life and makes reconditioning or even reuse viable. BTW the battery management is vastly different to that in your laptop (you want 4 hours of power for 4 years, not 2 hours of power for 8 years) There's more to be learnt, but we know some of the myths already.
    Refurbishing an old car is probably better than building a new car with no better mileage or emission. But there's plenty of materials in any car that are no better for the environment than Lithium.
     
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  15. @Bradley: According to M.A. Weiss et al., in their 2000 report from the MIT Energy Laboratory, "On the Road in 2020: A Lifecycle Analysis of New Automotive Technologies", fully 75 percent of a vehicle’s lifetime carbon emissions come from the fuel it burns over its lifetime, with another 19 percent coming from the production of that fuel. Extraction of the raw materials that make up the vehicle adds another 4 percent, and only 2 percent of lifetime carbon is due to the manufacturing and assembly process.

    In other words, junking a low-efficiency car and replacing it with a much higher-mileage car is actually lower carbon despite the extra energy used to extract the materials and build it.
     
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  16. @Voelcker, I may be misreading @Bradley but considering the context he provides, I think he means to refurbish EVs with LiIon batteries, not ICE cars.
     
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  17. I get your point too, but you're also giving blanket statements. What do you mean by "used car"? One past it's full life-cycle, or simply 10 years? Also, how much extra debt should a person take on to purchase a battery-powered vehicle? What is the environmental effects of that (because there are some!). What are the environmental effects of subsidies (because, again, there are some). In the end, there is no simple equation to apply to everyone's situation, but we do need automobiles to continue to progress. I personally like NatGas's potential, as well as Hydrogen. But, we should also ask 'bigger picture' questions like 'what kind of COMPANIES do we want to support?'. I'd take a look at LOCAL MOTORS, who crowd sources their designs
     
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  18. There are more comments in this thread
  19. I think all of you, except John, has your head up the wrong place. Electric cars do not generate carbon pollution. That carbon has already been generated; that pollution is already there in our air, water, and land, so how can the electric car also generate it? If some of you had half a brain, you would be dangerous.
     
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  20. I would also point out that while this is very solid math for the U.S. grid, other grids out there--China, say--use almost entirely dirty coal, and the baseline comparison vehicle is not a Nissan Versa but something smaller and more fuel efficient. So while Larson is correct for prevailing U.S. conditions, a similar study done for other regions with different vehicle mixes and different grids may come to different conclusions.
     
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  21. Yup, you're right, John: substituting other vehicles will affect the results one way or the other, whether we use, say, a Prius or a Hummer. Or, for that matter, a Mitsu i (MiEV) or a G-Wiz on the other side of the equation.

    It only seems fair, however, to line up side-by-side truly comparable vehicles, and the Versa is certainly closest to the Leaf on the market.

    Besides, it is the petrolpuppets in this country who keep repeating ad nauseum their "long tailpipe" argument --not those in China. :-)
     
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  22. I don't know. There are at least two Prius owners in my neighborhood that now own LEAFs. So I think an argument could be made for comparing the LEAF and the Prius. I assure you, neither of my neighbors would own a Versa.
     
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  23. Yes, 'tis true that many Prius owners are moving up to *no* gas with the Leaf. Out of curiosity, I also calculated that comparison, but using the actual percentages and consequent CO2 per kWh for the entire electric grid in the U.S.:

    Coal: 44.9% (1.04 lbs.)
    Natural Gas: 23.4% (.23 lbs.)
    Nuclear: 20.3% (.03 lbs.)
    Hydro: 6.9% (.002 lbs.)
    Petroleum: 1% (1.72 lbs.)
    Renewables: 3.6% (.003 lbs. at the highest)

    TOTAL: 1.32 lbs. of CO2 per kWH nationwide.

    The result? The Prius produces 54.63 lbs. per 100 miles. The Leaf produces 53.60 lbs. per 100 miles, i.e., just too close to call IMHO.

    But... let's not forget that the Leaf will get cleaner over time. And... I can't charge the Prius with my solar panels. :-)
     
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  24. Right, the two LEAF owners I know also own solar panels :)
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  25. doe's this take into account the overall carbon footprint of manufacture and disposal? Batteries that need replacing are hideously difficult to dispose of.
     
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  26. Lithium batteries are infact recyclable, most rechargeable batteries are recyclable.
     
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  27. If by "hideously difficult to dispose of" you mean that scrap dealers WILL PAY YOU MONEY and come pick them up, then yes.
     
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  28. Unlike gasoline, electric cars also have the ability to become cleaner over time. As we move closer and closer toward clean renewable electricity, the power you put in your electric car becomes cleaner. Also I always like to remind people not to forget about their house/apartment, we are all in constant use of electricity so we are constantly contributing carbon dioxide into our air from a power plant (unless your power is produced through other methods). So what's the big deal if electric cars use cole based energy or not, your still going to continue to use electricity weather you have an EV or not. So I'm going to go create so more carbon dioxide right now, by microwaving a pizza and watching TV, bye.
     
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  29. Personally, I have reduced my electricity consumption at home by 73% which is more than enough to power an EV.
     
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  30. What were the big savers in reducing your homes electric consumption?
     
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  31. @ John, I think most people who read this site are doing things to reduce their consumption. I recently renovated and most of my updates were made with greater efficiency in mind. So I also wondered how were you able to calculate your percentage, I'd like to do the same for myself.
     
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  32. So there is a long list (part of problem of electricity conservation is there is no one answer).
    1) Replaced refrigerator, dishwasher, clothes washer (they each take less than half the KWH of the old units)
    2) the new front loading clothes washer allowed the laundry to be hung up to dry as the clothes are almost dry when they exit the spin cycle.
    3) Computers, put to slept when not in use
    4) Desktop computers replaced with laptops (taking 1/4th the KWH)
    5) CFL and LED lights replaced incandescent (1/4th KWH)
    6) phantom load reduction with switches, timers and smart strips, energy star rated power bricks (AC adapters)
    etc. I really need to make a blog post for it.

    Down from about 1000 kwh/month to about 300 kwh/month.
     
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  33. Excellent work John. I started along the same path prior to receiving my LEAF (had almost a year to plan for it) and now use less electricity than I did before I got the car.
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  34. John,

    Thats a great point that most people should understand. The average home uses 900hw a month. Just by increasing their efficiency they can shave 30% off of the their bill and that would be the electricity required to drive 12,000 miles a year in an electric car
     
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  35. Yes, for people looking to fuel their EV, how about conserving electricity in your house and then (mentally) spending it to fuel your EV.
     
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  36. Oh Dear. University of Tennessee researchers say EVs are worse for the environment than gasoline cars.

    http://www.chinacartimes.com/2012/02/14/researchers-claim-chinese-electric-cars-bad-enivronment/

    However, they are talking about China, not the US, and appear to be talking about particulate emissions from China's (mostly) coal generate electricity.
     
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  37. Well, even with 100% coal-fired electricity, we now know that's not true when comparing Nissan's Leaf and Versa --in China or anywhere else. But if those researchers are comparing EVs to small, fuel-sipping, ICEs like John points out above... yeah, they're probably right.

    Studies like this irk me, however. I mean, what general conclusion should the general public draw? "Oh, wow! Let's just keep burning gasoline then."

    And when it runs out? Duh-uh!
     
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  38. Right, well, seems like China is trying not to go the gasoline route because of concerns about supply stability. Something that those of us that lived through the 1974 OPEC oil embargo know too well.

    Really, we all need to move beyond gasoline and coal, EVs can get us there, but the path matters.
     
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  39. "It would also be interesting to know about other pollutants such as CO, NOx, etc. Not clear if that is better or worse with burning coal versus gasoline."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2100936/Study-shows-impact-electric-cars-worse-petrol-powered-vehicles.html

    Smaller vehicles is the answer, regardless of power source.
     
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  40. Less than 1 kWh of electricity per gallon is required in oil refining -- a business I know well because it's the work I do. The 6 kWh per gallon number is at least a factor of 10 too high.
     
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  41. I suspect you are referring to the amount of electricity being pulled from the grid and not counting power that is generated on-site at the refinery which certainly emits CO2. I do agree that refineries do not pull in 6kWh of power from the grid so it is incorrect to assume a worst-case scenario of coal-fired electricity when calculating refinery emissions. However the oil industry is not exactly forthcoming about what they emit, so instead we need to infer what those emissions may be by counting what goes in to a refinery vs. what goes out, including gasoline and other by-products and assuming the balance is used in the refining process. Several reports are available and I've seen estimates as high as 7.5kWh worth of energy is required.
     
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  42. If you have data you'd like to share with us, I think the community would be very glad to hear it!
     
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  43. 3.3 billions barrels (1.14 billion barrels produced by refiners + 2.16 billion barrels produced by the blenders) = 138.6 billion gallons.

    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGFRX_NUS_1&f=A
    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfrz_nus_1&f=a

    46.2 billion kWh purchased by the refineries:

    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=8_NA_8FE0_NUS_K&f=A

    Gasoline yield in 2010 is 45.7%:

    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGFRYUS3&f=A

    (46.2 / 138.6) x 0.457 = 0.152 kWh per gallon. That's 152 Wh per gallon of gas.
     
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  44. I don't have insider knowledge but I have my doubts that refineries are so efficient. Laura and Dennis are saying a refinery produces 1-4 gallons of gasoline using the amount of energy that my wife uses to dry her hair every morning.

    But for the sake of argument, let's say refineries only use 300 Wh per gallon of gas. Subtracting out 6000 grams of CO2 from Mark's calculations still leaves the electric car as the cleanest choice in a worst case scenario.
     
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  45. Mark's calculations don't count all significant CO2 sources. Off the top of my head, I can see that Mark did not account for:
    - the natural gas that is burned by oil refineries as fuel
    - the natural gas used by oil refineries as a feedstock to produce hydrogen (which also produces CO2 as a byproduct)
    - the fuel produced from oil that is burned by oil refineries
    - the energy (and CO2) to produce the oil in the first place
     
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  46. Steve,

    If you follow Mark's "EPA combined MPG estimate" and go to Energy and Environment tab... then in Greenhouse Gas Emission section, show dropdown box has the option to show tailpipe and upstream emission. Per EPA, Versa emit 369 g/mi so for 100 miles, it is 36,900 grams.

    If you click on the "i" icon, EPA explained what was included in the upstream number:

    These estimates include CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide emitted from all steps in the use of a fuel, from production and refining to distribution and final use—vehicle manufacture is excluded. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions are converted into a CO2 equivalent.
     
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  47. Steve, petroleum refinery is about 83% efficient. 17% is lost or reused as part of the refinery process. My numbers from EIA represents the electricity purchased from the grid.
     
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  48. Maybe I didn't see it and it was previously discussed here but what about all the wasted electricity at night. Most will charge at night and not use any coal because the plants stay on when the electricity is not being used. I have heard 80 percent of Americans could have an electric car without building a new power plant if people charged only at night.
    The second point is that if Chevron had not purchased and suppressed the NiMH battery in the 90's we would already have 20k electric cars widely available. The Toyota Rav 4 EV from the 90's is just as good as the EV's coming out today. Imagine how cheap that car could be today if we were using this battery. The lithium battery should be used for the Tesla, and the NiMH for the mainstream.
     
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  49. Well we wouldn't need new plants, but we'd still be generating more power which requires more fuel and thus still produces CO2 if that's fossil fuel based generation. Furthermore, at least today, it's the peaking plants (online during the day when power peaks) that are probably the least polluting, leaving the nighttime fuel-mix more CO2 emitting. Still, you can ultimately get back to the argument that even at 100% coal-fired electricity, the EV is still better than an ICE.
     
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  50. Here's another thing to consider. How much pullotion was created in producing the batteries for your hybrid/electric car. The electricity may be a little cleaner, although there are some very clean gas cars & then there is bio diesel cars which are even better, but when talking about how clean your car is you have to consider how much pollution was created to make the batteries & that the batteries will have to be replaced long before a gas/diesel engine will. Which leads to another huge enviromental problem is what happens to the old batteries. If you want a car that is clean & fuel efficent get a bio diesel
     
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  51. How much pollution was created in producing the iron that goes into the engine block of your car? Or the pollution that went into retrieving the platinum, palladium, and rhodium in the catalytic converter of your car? The typical batteries used for EV purposes have a useful life much greater than the typical ICE, even after they've become impractical for normal use in the car. Energy storage for backup power systems in hospitals, data-centers, power plants, and even homes can make use of the batteries when they no longer carry enough capacity for mobile use. And while I do agree that bio diesel is an improvement over fossil diesel, it has the side-affect of driving up the price of food.
     
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  52. Biodiesel does not drive up food costs. It is an ancillary product. Oils for biodiesel are extracted from what becomes animal feed anyway. The cattle, pigs, etc. still get their feed.

    Now if you want to talk about how the resources required for meat production and consumption drives up other food costs that's a more legit issue. But I make no promises of giving up meat entirely
     
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  53. I think the batteries may last longer than you realize. Some of the Toyota RAV4 EV's are over 150,000 miles and still going on the original batteries.

    There aren't any cars sold in the USA warrantied for more than 20% biodiesel blended into diesel. Most will void warranty for more than 5% biodiesel!

    BTW I've been a biodiesel user for the last 8 years.
     
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  54. how about the disposing and making of the extra batteries to run the car. a typical car battery will last 3-5 years how often do these batteries fail and have to be replaced and how many of them in are in the electric car. what about the dangers of the battery exploding from being over charged or charged to many times.
     
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  55. I'd recommend DOE's Clean Cities Vehicle Cost Calculator to get a true comparison of conventional ICEs and PEVs. This tool uses basic information about your driving habits to calculate total cost of ownership and emissions for makes and models of most vehicles, including alternative fuel and advanced technology vehicles.

    http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/calc/
     
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  56. I've updated the page with the actual grid mix in the U.S. and the EPA's own data for the "upstream" emissions of gas cars:

    http://www.casteyanqui.com/ev/longtailpipe/index.html

    Those who still dispute the results should let the EPA know that the agency's figures are wrong.
     
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  57. The simple math takes into account the 100 mile CO2 production of the Versa, but what about the CO2 production while it sits, running, at stop lights? Or worse, traffic jams? If there were ever an argument worth considering in this conversation over which is worse for the planet, maybe we should think about the amount of time spent wasting gasoline while at a standstill. My normal commute puts that at about an hour per week.
     
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  58. This is an excellent point!!

    Anyone who's experienced I-90 into Chicago during rush hour or the Chesapeake Bay bridge toll during rush hour, etc., etc. should understand the huge advantages electrics provide in fuel savings and BREATHABLE AIR during traffic jams.
     
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  59. The one thing I notice in the LEAF calculation is that you assume that the 100% of the battery's 24KWh capacity is accessible. This is not the case. The car does not let you use about the "top" and "bottom" 5% of the battery's capacity, as doing so is harder on the battery longevity than using the "middle" 90% (21KWh).

    So, a "full" charge takes the battery pack from 5% ("empty") to 95% ("full") of its 24KWh rated capacity. This 21KWh charge is what the EPA says will get you 73 miles. (Nissan claims 100 miles. We get 85+ with a high mix of freeway driving, or 4.0 miles/KWh.) This improves the LEAF numbers by at least 10%.
     
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  60. A few items that were not considered but should be are:
    It takes 8-10 kWh of electric to refine OIL into a gallon of gas. AN EV can go 40+ miles on that electric. So it has to be cleaner to drive electric than on gas or on diesel.

    At night many utilties have excess electric since they can't shut off or even ramp down COAL, NUCLEAR or even hydro. So if you charge at night on the excess you really create no pollution more than what is already being produced.
     
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