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5.2 Million Electric Vehicles Will Be On World's Roads By 2017

 
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2012 Ford Focus Electric launch, New York City, January 2011 - charging point

2012 Ford Focus Electric launch, New York City, January 2011 - charging point

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President Obama may be aiming to get 1 million plug in vehicles on the roads of the U.S. by 2015, but a recent study by Pike Research predicts that by 2017 there will only be 5.2 million plug-in vehicles worldwide. 

In total, more than 14 million hybrid and plug-in electric cars will be on the roads by 2017, but it is estimated this will only represent just 3 percent of total light-duty vehicle sales. 

The U.S. is expected to have the highest adoption of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles, with as many as 4.9 percent of vehicles sold including hybrid or plug-in vehicle technology. 


Next year, Pike research predicts just over 1 million hybrid electric vehicles will be sold worldwide, versus around 250,000 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. 

Over subsequent years the dominance of the hybrid car will fade however, with an annual sales figure of just 1.5 million hybrid cars predicted for 2017 versus around 1.3 million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. 

Pike Research Predicted Electric and Hybrid Car Sales

Pike Research Predicted Electric and Hybrid Car Sales

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But perhaps the most promising news from Pike Research is that it expects the Compound Annual Growth Rate for plug-in and hybrid vehicles to grow at 19.5 percent worldwide during the next six years, while the market for plug-in and electric-only cars will grow at a massive 48.4 percent, while the overall automotive CAGR will be just 3.7 percent. 

If the predicted trends continue, the annual electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales figures could easily outnumber the number of hybrid car sales within ten years. 

[Pike Research]

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Comments (2)
  1. Anyone who tries to predict something, which in this case depends almost entirely upon the price of batteries, should do so by predicting the price of batteries, which is what Elon Musk does when attempting to estimate when his company will be able to produce an affordable electric car. He's looking 5 to 6 years down the road, strictly on the basis of production costs reduction, not the development of some new super battery. The
    estimates provided here are the result of who's knows what logic, so can be dismissed out of hand. A total waste of time.
     
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  2. "A total waste of time" says our usual bitter poster, Kent B, which is truly ironic. So forecasts should never be made when some factors are uncertain? And I especially love your belief that sales of EVs will "depend almost entirely on the price of batteries." Really, so overall styling of the EVs themselves, mileage/emissions requirements and the cost of fuel are not important at all...?
    Kent, why the constant anger and bitterness? At least you made it one whole post without your usual obligatory comment about the Volt being the ugliest car ever made, so that's progress, I guess.
     
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