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Making EVs is Easy; Making GOOD EVs Is Hard, and Costly

 
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2011 Nissan Leaf prototype

2011 Nissan Leaf prototype

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2011 Chevrolet Volt pre-production prototype, January 2010

2011 Chevrolet Volt pre-production prototype, January 2010

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Mitsubishi i-MiEV electric car - front - December 2008

Mitsubishi i-MiEV electric car - front - December 2008

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2010 Toyota Prius Plug-In Hybrid, 2009 Los Angeles Auto Show

2010 Toyota Prius Plug-In Hybrid, 2009 Los Angeles Auto Show

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Aptera 2e development prototype at company offices in Vista, California

Aptera 2e development prototype at company offices in Vista, California

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We're now well and truly on the road to plug-in vehicle nirvana, with the 2011 Nissan Leaf, the 2011 Chevrolet Volt, and various other plug-in and electric vehicles due to hit the market within the next couple of years.

But there now seem to be hundreds of car companies, enthusiastic business people, and hard-core green freaks trying to sell us revolutionary breakthrough car designs--every one of them, of course, the most ethical and responsible car ever created.

Many of these companies will flounder on hitting their first hurdle: publicity.

Long ago, companies and individuals with less-than-stellar products would have been spat out of the threshing machine that is automotive journalism. But, in an increasingly connected world, stories about new cars are no longer restricted to the auto press.

Local and national news crews clamber over anything with even a whiff of green credentials. Headlines are made by everyone from the crazy, unstable, and wildly impractical EVette  to more credible--though still radical--vehicles like the Aptera 2e.

Electric vehicle enthusiasts and motor aficionados may be able to tell the difference, but can the public?

Surveys show consumers are open to the idea of plug-in vehicles, but will the search for a cheap, clean electric vehicle end in disaster, fueled by hype, investor greed, ineffectual reporting from the mainstream media, and lack of consumer knowledge?

Are unscrupulous businesses taking advantage of consumer ignorance and media desperation for a green story? How about those taking advantage of those wishing to invest in a green future?

Good venture capitalists do due diligence on a company before investing. They'll know if the technology they're about to invest in has the technological prowess to have at least a chance of success.  Patents will be well and truly researched, outlandish claims squished.

Smaller companies without big VC firms sniffing around may have less careful, less knowledgeable investors. Often run by enthusiastic but slightly delusional (sometimes even swindling) innovators, smaller companies may overestimate a vehicle's capabilities and potential market share, taking increasingly bigger risks to get noticed.

They'll play on an unbeatable price, an impressive range or top speed (like the will-it-ever-be-made Zap Alias), or some revolutionary technology. Unable to attract bigger investors (who have already dismissed outlandish conceits or business models), they turn to smaller fish: independent investors, and individuals who just want a piece of the future-electric-car dream.

What ends up getting produced--if cars actually make it out the door--is usually less than what was promised. Either the vehicle offers performance even a golf cart would be ashamed of, or corners are cut in dire attempts to classify the vehicle as a low-speed or neighborhood electric vehicle (NEV) to bring it to market without the very expensive process of passing NHSTA tests.

If the car does in fact make it to market, lack of dealer support may mean success is short-lived. More often, the car doesn't even make it past the CAD file.






 
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Comments (6)
  1. Absolutely true; there's no such thing as a free lunch. Whilst electric cars are clearly simpler to design Tesla's startup difficulties show that a real car is hard to make. I do wish the best though to all the boutique design firms as that’s where the real innovation will start.
     
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  2. Yes. Totally agree. Kit cars have been around for a long time. Mass-production is always tricky and underestimated. By mid-2011, I fully expect Aptera, Fisker or Coda to not make it to production. Tesla is already there and have a laser-like focus on delivering Model-S.
    BTW, congrats on your new gig. I'll stop here more often. Thanks for that.
     
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  3. Any thoughts on two wheelers and the increasingly decent choices and prices there? Those will probably will give you your biggest bang for the buck for some time to come.
    A couple examples:
    http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/05/electric_bike_ezip_trailz.php
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zero-motorcycles-offers-all-new-2010-zero-ds-and-zero-s-for-under-7500-after-california-rebate-88234857.html
     
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  4. Great article Nikki, well done. You really captured what many people on the "EV scene" are thinking.
    You're also spot on with publicity being the number one killer of any new electric vehicle: A massive slice of the public still believe electric cars are only fit for golf carts.
    EV manufacturers have a long, difficult road ahead of them - but ultimately that road is a one-way-street, and it's heading in the right direction.
     
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  5. EVO - I would love the two wheelers to take off in the way that they appear to be going - but until the price comes down I think we're faced with the same issue that the electric cars are faced with.
    I'll give you an example. I'm a biker, and eight months ago purchased a second-hand scooter which was intended to compete with a 50cc scooter. It cost me less than a gas bike but sadly the performance was ten times worse.
    The decent electric motorbikes, just like the decent electric cars, are expensive. Sadly there are more poor bikes on the road than there are poor cars and that's going to exsaserbate the problem for some time as well-intentioned by slightly niave buyers go for a sub-standard bike to only experience a hellish example of electric vehicles.
    Now, were two-wheelers included in incentives and government grant schemes, that would all change.
     
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  6. The decent gas motorbikes, just like the decent gas cars, are expensive, too. Sadly there are more poor bikes of all types on the road than there are poor cars of all types and that's going to exaserbate the problem for some time as well-intentioned by slightly naive buyers go for a sub-standard bike to only experience a hellish example of any type of vehicle.
    You have noted a general truth and that EVs are not exempt from it.
    Education occurs...
    Well done.
     
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