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Toyota's Passive-aggressive Approach To The Plug-In Hybrid

 
2,331 views Oct 18, 2009

The Plug-In Prius

The Plug-In Prius

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Unless you live under a box you're aware that Toyota is currently riding high in the green-tech Olympics on the strength of the all-conquering Prius.    In the U.S. alone the Prius sold almost 160,000 units last year.  Overall Toyota sold 240,000 hybrids in the U.S., while Ford and Honda are currently duking it out for the number two spot, with each selling roughly 10% of that number.   The status quo must be looking pretty good to the top brass at Toyota as it not only kills with actual hybrid sales, but gets a huge marketing boost across the lineup from it's aura of green leadership.

But with many automakers publicizing their coming  plug-in hybrid or pure EV vehicles in an attempt to both get ahead of the curve and appear to be ahead of the curve,  public perception is beginning to shift.  Toyota may be in danger of losing it's perceived technological leadership.  So it too is now introducing it's own plug-in, albeit in a remarkably conservative (not to say reluctant) fashion.

Only five hundred will be made available in North America over the next three years while the design is studied.  Then, according to the company, a final version will be produced and become more widely available.

Interestingly Toyota has tentatively rejected the Chevy Volt assumption that 40 miles of electric range is optimal (or the Nissan Leaf assumption of over 100) and will instead be providing something like fifteen miles electric.   According to Tom Stricker, Director of the Energy and Environmental research group for Toyota North America, the three year pilot program will be trying to find a "sweet Spot"- a balance between all-electric range and the cost of the expensive batteries needed to provide it.  Toyota is apparently calculating that shorter all-electric range but at a slightly lower vehicle price will be the most attractive package for consumers.  This is a reasonable bet to make in the face of uncertainties concerning the future of petroleum prices, and ongoing debate about the real extent of demand for EV's and PHEV's (don't believe the hype?), but it's hard not to suspect that the strategy is at least partially conditioned by an institutional reluctance to change the current winning-formula any more than is absolutely necessary.

[Source: The New York Times]





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Comments (12)

  1. By Chris O Posted: 10/19/2009 12:49am PDT

    The article states: "a lower vehicle price (thanks to less Lithium per unit)". Mind you: lithium batteries only contain about 80 grams of lithium per KWH and the price of lithium carbonate is about $ 6,50 per kilo. For instance the battery of your mobile phone contains about 0.2 grams of lithium. So clearly lithium can't explain the extreme cost of Li-ion batteries and I really wonder what can...
     
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  2. By Desertstraw Posted: 10/19/2009 3:01am PDT

    Toyota knows how to make good all electric vehicles, they did it with the RAV4 Electric about a decade ago. Many of these vehicles are still on the road doing sensationally well.
    It may be that everybody is wrong in judging the future of EV's on the basis of lithium batteries. In many places around the world people are working on better energy storage devices. Two companies the ever-illusive Eestor and Micro Bubble Technologies say that they have already solved the problem. "The CNT-Battery’s advanced technology demonstrates eight times the reserve capacity of traditional lead acid batteries, two and a half times the energy density of lithium-ion batteries, and a recharge time of just five minutes; all at a fraction of the cost of lithium-ion batteries." The CNT is scheduled to be made public on November 18.
    Micro Bubble is a South Korean company and with Hyundai now established as a fine auto company, South Korean may be ready to lead the world in electric cars.
     
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  3. By Jason M. Hendler Posted: 10/19/2009 4:25am PDT

    Considering how quickly battery prices are dropping, Toyota is chasing a moving target. Americans are unique in their desire to reduce / eliminate the use of foreign oil.
    Toyota should instead determine the curve of decreasing range / increasing price and match that to market size. Clearly, no batteries is cheapest, but they miss the market that wants some AER. Pure BEV is extremely expense - $45K - $50K. Somewhere in between is the majority of the market.
     
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  4. By omnimoeish Posted: 10/19/2009 8:58am PDT

    15 miles would be fine. I think it's a great idea. I know Toyota does not recklessly put their reliability reputation on the line. They would probably be all over a plugin Prius if they thought it would last. They have been testing plugin versions of their Prius for at least 3 years, so I wonder if they know something we don't. Of course as Jason M Hendler says, they are chasing a moving target because better batteries that last longer are coming out now, as well as cheaper ones. As Chris O pointed out, the raw materials going into lithium ion batteries are practically dirt cheap. As hundreds of prominent companies have started making mad dashes on energy storage, there is so much room for price reduction whether its based on lithium, or something else.
     
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  5. By Fraser Posted: 10/19/2009 9:20am PDT

    Can't they just let their customers choose? Let people pick from different sized batteries depending on their needs. The car comes with that range, and you can buy a bigger battery later if you want.
     
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  6. By omnimoeish Posted: 10/19/2009 10:01am PDT

    I don't know if anyone is going to sell 240,000 plug in vehicles for a while which is what they need just to computer with Toyota's parallel hybrids. Toyota could stay on top of "green cars" for a while.
     
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  7. fb_646952455 avatar Fran Sullivan-Fahs Posted: 10/19/2009 11:56am PDT

    Who seems to be really, really sincere in promoting pure electric travel? My bet is that Ford will be the first to do it in the US, and BYD will do it for China. We have always owned Toyotas, but I think that Toyota has much more skill and resources than they are bringing to bear in this exciting market of pure EVs. I am afraid that they will be left standing in the dust, the zero emissions dust.
     
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  8. By Chip Daigle Posted: 10/19/2009 8:33pm PDT

    Toyota's Passive Approach - Are you on Crack cocaine? GM's $40K Volt is like America jumping off a mile high cliff. Toyota to its credit is saying lets cut the battery in half and half the price ($20K) so that we can get our foot in the door and as we improve the tech maybe we can get cheaper batteries to get to 40 miles on a charge.
     
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  9. By Jonathan V Posted: 10/20/2009 7:38pm PDT

    Well, my obvious addiction to crack aside, the conceit of the title is the use of passive-aggressive (not passive, which has a different meaning). What's being conveyed is that there are indications that Toyota doesn't really think that PHEV architecture is such a good idea, but that the company feels some pressure to appear to be moving in that direction in order to avoid the public perception that it is no longer the technology leader.
    Which is not to say that Toyota is wrong in it's assessment.
     
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  10. By hsr0601 Posted: 10/21/2009 7:28am PDT

    In fact, just a few weeks ago, researchers at Japan's National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology developed the first
    Nickel-Lithium battery that can hold more than 3.5 times the energy of a normal Lithium-Ion battery
     
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  11. By  BmwDriver Posted: 10/22/2009 11:35pm PDT

    Today Toyota is not just produce, but also has the widest range hybrid cars!
     
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  12. By Nathanael Posted: 11/19/2009 1:25pm PST

    Toyota is wrong in its assessment. It will be interesting to see which car companies steal the show from Toyota in the coming years. If Toyota isn't even planning to have a plug-in of any sort until 2013 or later (!) it will be beaten out by multiple car companies, including startups, which will have plug-in models in mass production and in showrooms already by 2012; even a pessimistic assessment of the timeline would expect two or three models to be widely available. At that point, with much higher gas prices, Toyota's terrible all-electric range will look *really* terrible.
    Of course I will not be surprised if poorer people continue to drive gasoline cars for decades longer than well-to-do people -- just as they drove horses and buggies well into the 1950s. But does Toyota want to be the last buggy manufacturer to switch over? Apparently they do.
     
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