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Flex-Fuel Future: Cars Are Coming, But Where's the Fuel?

 
2,982 views Oct 16, 2009
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GM E85 presentation

GM E85 presentation

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We don't hear so much about ethanol these days, now that gasoline is back down to $2.50 a gallon. But we still get e-mails, so here's a post to answer the question: What's going on with flex-fuel cars?

Short answer: Manufacturers are slowly increasing the number of vehicles they build that can handle both gasoline and ethanol. The problem is the availability of the fuel.

Burning whatever's in the tank

Flex-fuel cars are designed to run on any liquid fuel you may happen to put in the tank (although not diesel). Outside the U.S., Ford offers a flex-fuel Mondeo sedan.

Corn Ethanol Pump

Corn Ethanol Pump

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E85 fueling station

E85 fueling station

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Entire Hummer fleet to be E85 capable by 2010

Entire Hummer fleet to be E85 capable by 2010

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Ethanol-powered Saab diesel on display in Sweden

Ethanol-powered Saab diesel on display in Sweden

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Volvo's entire range gets flex-fuel option

Volvo's entire range gets flex-fuel option

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Even more remarkable, the Fiat Siena Tetrafuel sold in Brazil runs on any mix of gasoline or ethanol and also burns compressed natural gas (CNG).

Flex-fuel full size

U.S. automakers have slowly been expanding their offerings of flex-fuel-capable vehicles, although it's only in the last three or four years that they have been visibly identified as such.

The industry as a whole has now built more than 7 million flex-fuel vehicles, half of those from General Motors. And in March 2006, the Detroit Three agreed to make half the vehicles they built capable of running on E85 by 2012.

Congress is now considering a bill, sponsored by Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), that would require automakers to make 80 percent of their fleet E85-compatible by 2015. The comparable House bill is sponsored by Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY).

CAFE credits for carmakers

It's worth noting that for many years, carmakers could get EPA credits toward meeting Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards simply by building flex-fuel vehicles.

No matter if not a single drop of ethanol ever gurgled through their fuel lines--and it virtually never did--they still got the credits. It wasn't until gas prices spiked a few years ago that the yellow fuel cap to denote a flex-fuel vehicle came into being.

Under the EPA's latest emissions requirements, those credits would continue through 2015. After that, automakers would only get credit if they could show E85 was actually being used.

GM and Ford lead, imports trail

General Motors and Ford offer flex-fuel abilities mostly in their largest vehicles. For 2010, GM's full-size vans, pickup trucks, and sport utility vehicles, and a few full-size, midsize and compact cars have flex-fuel hardware built in.

Ford similarly offers flex-fuel large pickup trucks and sport-utilities, as well as full-size sedans. By and large, however, import nameplates are moving far less aggressively.

E85 struggles for access

The real problem today is availability of alternative fuels. The ethanol blend known as E85 is sold only at a few hundred Midwestern gas stations, mostly local or regional brands.

E85 isn't blended by the oil companies whose names are on more than half the gas stations in the U.S. So there's little business case for them to allow a "foreign" fuel onto their real estate, even if someone else were to pay the cost of installing new and separate tanks and pumps.

Not price competitive

And because a gallon of E85 has less energy than a gallon of E10 gasoline, it has to be priced substantially lower than gasoline for buyers to come out even.

That was possible at the height of the 2007 gasoline spike, with prices of $4 a gallon or more. Now that gasoline has fallen back to levels of $2.50 or $3.00 a gallon, E85 just isn't competitive.






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Comments (7)

  1. By  Dan McCullough Posted: 10/16/2009 6:29pm PDT

    John you said...
    "E85 struggles for access
    The real problem today is availability of alternative fuels. The ethanol blend known as E85 is sold only at a few hundred Midwestern gas stations, mostly local or regional brands.
    You should know that in 2003 there were less than 200 Stations selling E85 , today there are 2,200 Stations. (E85Prices.com)
    And maybe more surprising to many is that E85 can now be found in over 1,568 Cities in the United states. All but 3 States have E85.
    You can drive from New York to California and find E85 the entire Way just as you can drive from Minnesota to Texas and not have any issue locating E85.
    Granted we still need thousands more Stations but clearly the growth in E85 continues and will surge in 2010 as UL finishes certification for E85 pumps .
    The National Average Price for E85 is $2.12 and $2.51 for Gasoline .. a 16% spread more than enough for most FFVs to get as good if not better MPG
    Even if the cost were the same at least our Money isn't going to OPEC.
     
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  2. john_v avatar John Voelcker Posted: 10/17/2009 4:24am PDT

    @Dan: Thanks for adding this note. Obviously my E85 source was a bit out of date.
    That said, you cite 2,200 stations selling E85. The DoE cites 164,300 gas stations in U.S. during 2007, meaning the average consumer has about 1.5 chances in 100 of finding E85 at his or her local station. So there's still a way to go before E85 is widespread.
    Are you aware of any data showing how much E85 each of those 2,200 stations actually sells?
     
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  3. john_v avatar John Voelcker Posted: 10/17/2009 4:24am PDT

    DoE source here:
    http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2008_fotw548.html
     
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  4. Russ Finley avatar Russ Finley Posted: 10/17/2009 9:06am PDT

    How many angels can fit on the head of a pin? Why is corn ethanol still considered a green fuel? Most true environmentalists hate the stuff. Have you seen this report in the Journal Nature?
    http://biodiversivist.blogspot.com/2009/10/transgressing-identified-and-quantified.html
    Corn ethanol pours gas on several of those parameters.
    When consumer reports tested a flex fuel vehicle using e85 it got 27% worse mileage, meaning you would need a 27% price spread.
    http://editorial.autos.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=435631
     
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  5. By  Dan McCullough Posted: 10/19/2009 5:48am PDT

    Morning John
    We produce a little over 10 Billion Gallons of ethanol, 200 Million or so gallons of that goes to E85.(roughly 2%)
    Most ethanol is still used as an additive (E10), you have volume to make producing ethanol a viable business. E10 is the base fuel in half the Stations in the United States.
    It is important that the Flex fuel vehicles continue coming because ethanol is expanding bottom up instead of top down. (again volume). You will see E20-E30 range as a base fuel . Brazil for example uses E22 as their base fuel and you still "need" Flex fuel vehicles once you start getting in that range of ethanol content.
    Once UL finish their certifications (all parts are done except some hoses)expect to see "blender pumps" as the main fuel pump installed. Blender Pumps can dispense any blend of ethanol the consumer chooses up-to E85.
    As far as Consumers only having a 1.5 -100 "chance" of finding E85.
    There is no "chance" involved. Consumers that want E85 now where E85 is sold in their Cities and plenty of resources to locate E85 on long distance trips like our E85 map http://e85prices.com/e85map.php
    I believe it is less about the "chance" of finding a station as it is educating the public that (is entirely new to E85 ) yes the vehicle you are driving IS a FFV and Yes you can pull right up to the E85 pump and fill up.
    The education is a longer process than the actual locating a E85 station.
     
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  6. john_v avatar John Voelcker Posted: 10/21/2009 3:58am PDT

    @Dan: Definitely agree there's a major education process required.
    Would be curious to see any current data you have on consumer attitudes about ethanol and E85 in particular, including understanding of different energy content, and regional differences in awareness. (I'd assume the Midwest and agricultural areas are more aware since that's where it's currently produced.)
    Also curious to know the rollout plan for blender pumps.
    And slightly startled to think that consumers may be choosing their own blends. Surely that runs a major risk of them choosing a blend with more ethanol than their vehicle's systems can handle ? ? ?
    Shoot me a note & we can consider this conversation offline ...
     
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  7. By  Jason Ford Posted: 10/24/2009 4:17am PDT

    Nice Post I think this is the serious question and we have to think over it..I agrees that the answer lies in bio products and another thing is that water, as we can use water as a fuel and their are lots of achievements seen in this concept.
     
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